DUBAWI : "DUBAI" OR "NOT TO BUY"...

Dubawi
(Photo : Darley Stud) 

…IS NO LONGER THE QUESTION.

The question is, “how good is Dubawi?”. The answer is, it seems, very good. And the deeper you delve, it seems he gets better.

With three individual Pattern winners on Saturday 18^th and his second Gr1 winner seven days later, Darley’s Dubawi is European Bloodstock News’ Stallion of the Month for September.

The best son of his short-lived sire Dubai Millennium, the Classic-winning miler currently stands fourth on the European-based stallions list in order of 2010 northern hemisphere Stakes winners, a great achievement considering he only has two crops racing for him.

RACING RECORD

The Darley-bred Dubawi was trained by Saeed bin Suroor to race eight times in the blue colours of Godolphin.

As the first foal of his sire to see racecourse action, he made his debut in early June 2004 at Goodwood in a six furlong maiden on good to firm ground, winning cosily despite running green. Five weeks later, he stepped up in class and trip in Newmarket’s Gr3 Superlative Stakes on good to soft, getting in front near the line and having subsequent Gr1 winner Wilko back in third. He ended his first campaign as the impressive three-length winner of the Gr1 National Stakes at the Curragh in mid-September, despite again running green, and went into the winter as one of the favourites for the 2005 Gr1 Derby.

Dubawi had five outings as a three-year-old, clearly not appreciating the fast conditions at Newmarket when hanging in the closing stages and being beaten three lengths into fifth when favourite for the Gr1 2,000 Guineas.

He then travelled to Ireland to take on seven rivals in the Gr1 Irish 2,000 Guineas on good ground. He won well, despite again wandering under pressure, by an easeddown two lengths from multiple Gr1 winner Oratorio, who had finished a head in front of him at Newmarket.

It was then on to Epsom, where Dubawi started third best in the market for the Gr1 Derby. Despite the speed he had shown in his races, his first three dams were by Deploy, Dancing Brave and High Line, and he was related to many high class middle-distance runners, so there was every chance that he would stay the trip. He ran a respectable third, rather better than his sire had done six years earlier, but was no match for the easy winner Motivator and was run out of second in the final furlong.

After a break of more than two months, he reappeared over 1600m at Deauville for the Gr1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, in which he faced the unbeaten dual Classic heroine Divine Proportions, that season’s dual Gr1 winner Valixir and Whipper, winner of the Gr1 Prix Maurice de Gheest seven days earlier. Racing in third behind his pacemaker, Dubawi made his move first and ran out the comfortable length and a half winner from Whipper in what proved to be the best performance of his career.

His swansong came at Ascot six weeks later, when he was unable to pass the strapping Australian chesnut Starcraft in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, going down by three quarters of a length in a strangely-run race in which the small field of six somehow managed to split into two groups and Dubawi was switched from one to the other two furlongs from home. However, bearing in mind the long distance of the Newmarket straight and his relatively small change in trajectory, the move did not affect the result and he finished a clear second.

He retired to stud as the second top Three-Year-Old Miler of 2005 (behind Darley’s Shamardal) in the World Thoroughbred Rankings, his rating of 123 being 1lb higher than he had achieved at two.

FAMILY

Dubawi proved the best of the 54 surviving foals in the sole crop by Dubai Millennium, one of the highest-rated horses of the century and a four times Gr1 winner who recorded wide-margin victories in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (six lengths), Gr1 Dubai World Cup (six lengths) and Gr.1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (eight lengths) before a fractured leg on the gallops ended his racing career.

The son of Seeking the Gold sired five Stakes winners from that crop, also including Gr2 and four times Gr3 victor Echo of Light, as well as the Group-placed pair Oude and Quickfire, though it must be pointed out that his percentage of winners to foals was only a little over 40% and many of his progeny were not seen in public at all.

Dubawi is the first foal produced by Zomaradah (Deploy), who was trained by Luca Cumani for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and won six races between 10 and 11 furlongs over four seasons in training.

She proved a good traveller, picking up the Gr1 Oaks d’Italia in Milan and Gr2 (now Gr1) E P Taylor Stakes in Canada at three, the Gr2 (now Gr1) Premio Lydia Tesio in Rome at four and also finished third, beaten just a length, in the Gr1 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park that autumn. Zomaradahs second foal was the Barathea filly Princess Nada, a Listed winner over ten furlongs and Gr2-placed over 12, and she has since produced a minor winner by Seeking the Gold.

Zomaradah is a year younger half-sister to a multiple winner by Old Vic, the pair being the first two foals out of the three times placed Jawaher (Dancing Brave). The latter then spent nine years in the paddocks in Saudi Arabia before returning to Ireland in 2005, since when she has had three further foals, the youngest a two-year old Kodiac filly.

Dubawi’s third dam, High Tern (High Line), won twice and produced nine winners from her 11 foals, headed by the 1998 Gr1 Derby victor and sire High-Rise, the Listedwinning stayer Supremacy and the Listed-placed hurdler Gamekeeper. She only foaled two other daughters – Three Jewels, who was exported to India, and Perdicula, dam of the Listed-placed Markovitch

The fourth dam, Sunbittern (Sea Hawk), was a smart juvenile, winning three times and finishing fourth in the Gr1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She had ten winners among her 14 foals, the best being the Gr1 winner and dual Classic runner-up High Hawk (Shirley Heights). The latter was the first Shirley Heights mare to produce a Sadlers Wells foal, he being the Gr1 winner and leading sire In The Wings. High Hawks winning full-sister Dunoof was the second, her 1989-foaled daughter being the winner Folia, then High Hawk foaled the Pattern winners Hunting Hawk and Hawker’s News to Sadler’s Wells in 1990 and 1991, and the winner Hawk’s Castle in 1992, the year another full-sister, High Spirited, foaled another winning son of Sadler’s Wells, Motakabber.

In fact it was not until 1994 that a Shirley Heights mare from outside this immediate family produced a foal by the multiple Champion Sire, a run of successes that led to the numerous top class Sadler’s Wells progeny that have since resulted out of mares by Shirley Heights’ son Darshaan. The first bred on this cross was the Gr1-placed Listed winner Election Day, foaled in 1992.

Other daughters of Sunbittern have made their mark as broodmares; the Gr1-winning Shirley Heights mare Infamy is the dam of Gr2 winner Moon Queen (Sadler’s Wells) plus Barathea’s Gr3-winning daughter Barafamy; Dunoof is the dam of Gr3 winner Seltitude; and High Spirited’s Gr3-winning Sadler’s Wells daughter Legend Maker is the dam of Gr1 1,000 Guineas heroine Virginia Waters, the Classic placed Alexander of Hales and Gr1- placed sire Chevalier.

PEDIGREE

Dubawi	Dubai Millennium	Seeking The Gold	Mr Prospector (Raise A Native)
			Con Game (Buckpasser)
		Colorado Dancer	Shareef Dancer (Northern Dancer)
			Fall Aspen (Pretense)
	Zomaradah	Deploy	Shirley Heights (Mill Reef)
			Slightly Dangerous (Roberto)
		Jawaher	Dancing Brave (Lyphard)
			High Tern (High Line)

STUD FEES AND SALES YEARLINGS

Dubawi spent his first two years standing for £25,000 at Dalham Hall Stud, covering 141 mares in 2006 and 143 in 2007. Twenty of his first crop, which totalled 117, were sold at public auction as foals, realising an average of 60,624gns (£63,655) and a high of 160,000gns. As 2007 yearlings, 68 of them were headed by a 400,000gns son of Exciting Times and brought an average of 60,360gns (£63,378).

His second crop, currently his 106 two-year-olds, did not impress as much as foals, the 23 sold in 2007 making an average of 14,957gns (£15,705), but that average improved to 47,533gns (£49,910) as 2009 yearlings, topped by a filly out of Bella Lambada bought for 460,000gns.

Dubawi spent 2008 at Kildangan Stud, covering 103 mares at an advertised fee of €40,000. Some 69 foals resulted, which sold for up to 140,000gns last year and are now being offered as yearlings. To date, the top filly has been Echo of Light’s half sister, bought by John Ferguson at Goffs for €950,000, while the top-priced colt is Gr1 winner Kinnaird’s half-brother, sold to Form Bloodstock for 360,000gns at Book 1 of Tattersalls October Sale.

Dubawi returned to Dalham Hall Stud in 2009, where he covered a book of 72 at £15,000, a fee which was increased to £20,000 this year.

PROGENY

Dubawi made a great start with his first runners, ending 2009 with the most individual winners, 35, of any first season sire. They included Sand Vixen and Poet’s Voice, winners of the Gr2 Flying Childers Stakes and Gr2 Champagne Stakes on consecutive days last September.

That first crop produced two early 2010 Classic winners in the Italian-trained Worthadd, hero of the Gr3 Premio Parioli and winner, less than a month later, of the Gr2 Derby Italiano, while Makfi stunned 18 rivals to win the Gr1 2,000 Guineas and has since also beaten Goldikova in the Gr1 Prix Jacques Le Marois. Gr3 winner Anna Salai was beaten a head into second in the Gr1 Irish 1,000 Guineas, Monterosso was a Gr2 winner over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot, and Astrophysical Jet and Prince Bishop both won Gr3 races on 18th September, as did Dubawi’s second crop daughter Majestic Dubawi. Poet’s Voice then matched Makfi with a Gr1 victory, having that rival back in fifth when narrowly beating Rip Van Winkle in last month’s Gr1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

In all, an impressive 62% of Dubawi’s first crop are winners, eight of them at Group level and three at Listed, with a further five having earned black-type placings. His second crop have already included 11 black-type horses, headed by Group winners Irish Field and Majestic Dubawi, plus two Listed scorers and four Group placed.

Meanwhile, his first southern hemisphere runners include Gr1 winners Secret Admirer (in Australia) and Happy Archer (South Africa).

NICKS AND CROSSES

Breeders did not miss the good results seen through branches of Dubawi’s family with Sadler’s Wells blood.

Five of his first crop progeny are out of the latter’s daughters, plus a further 13 out of either paternal or maternal grand-daughters.

The ever-popular Danzig has also featured highly, 17 of the 117 being out of mares by Danzig-line sires, and they account for three of his 11 Stakes winners, including both Gr1 victors. Twelve are out of mares by Mr Prospector-line stallions, Nijinsky appears in the top line of ten of the dams, as does Blushing Groom - the latter group including two of the Stakes winners.

Dubawi has two lines, 4 x 5, of both Raise A Native and Northern Dancer, the latter through Shareef Dancer and Lyphard. More than a dozen of his first crop also have Northern Dancer in both halves of the distaff sides of their pedigrees, the placed filly Slasl having five crosses in all.

This abundance of Northern Dancer blood is even more prevalent in Dubawi’s second crop. Of his 11 black-type juveniles, six of them, including four of the five winners, have four crosses of Northern Dancer while the Gr3 - placed Big Issue has five - two through Lyphard and one each via Shareef Dancer, Nureyev and Danzig - and is also 4 x 4 to Mr Prospector, again only through sons, in his case Seeking the Gold and Lycius.

It is interesting to note that the four Dubawi three-year-olds who have second crosses of the mare Slightly Dangerous though her son Warning, have all won.

Extract from European Bloodstock News

THE 2010 STALLION NEW WORLD ORDER

Dubawi
(Photo : Darley)

“THE NEW WORLD ORDER 2010”

Bill Oppenheim TDNAmong all the really valuable, and scary, discussions of yearling prices, profitability and impending 2011 stud fees, it’s important to remember when we’re talking about “the market,” we’re actually talking about one market with several distinct tiers.

There is a commercial category, which I have called “The World Top 12” for some time, that exists in a different commercial atmosphere to the rest of the racing and breeding world.

Whoever the World Top 12 consists of at any given time, they are responsible for a disproportionately high percentage of the industry’s wealth, because of the high fees they command (cheapest of the 12 in 2010, aside from new entry Dubawi, was Smart Strike, at $75,000). They may or may not be trendsetters : what happens to the stud fees of these horses in 2011 may or may not have much to do with what happens to the fees of all other stallions in the racing universe.

Over the last 20 years, it has surprised me that the tier that separates itself right away from the rest of the stallion population is not 10, or 15, but almost always 12. The point is to be inductive about it - not to say, there must be 12, but to say, who are the top, top sires, and then count how many you’ve selected.

The criterion is that they stand out from the crowd.

It’s a judgment call, and subjective. It’s not just about the numbers, such as the APEX stallion ratings; the main note to make about them is that the top sires these days aren’t as far ahead of their contemporaries as the top sires used to be. But, to a certain extent, that has to be the result of the dilution of quality as stallions’ book sizes doubled. So, it’s not strictly the numbers, it’s a combination of the numbers and how I guess you, the professionals, actually rate them. But this World Top 12 - are they really supposed to behave by the same rules, as far as 2011 stud fee declines go, as the rest of the stallion population?

One very striking and dramatic development in the compilation of this very rich list is that the addition of its newest member, Dubawi, swings the balance of power to Europe for the first time in at least 40 years.

As of now, in my view, seven of the World Top 12 are European stallions, just five are American. Twenty years ago, it was probably one and 11. It doesn’t mean it’s always going to stay this way, but, subjective though this list may be, it certainly confirms the swing of the top stallions to Europe that began with Sadler’s Wells, whose first foals raced in 1988, 22 years ago.

Interestingly, then, if you start to look at the second tier - say, pick the next 18 to fill out the top 30 – that would be at least two-thirds American sires, and perhaps it is in that group that 2011 stud fees will be more vulnerable.

Dubawi’s rise to inclusion among a list of the world’s most elite stallions has been both sudden and decisive.

He began 2010 having been the second-best freshman sire in Europe in 2009, behind Darley stablemate Shamardal. And, though Shamardal himself is proving a very good sire indeed – he’s among the second-tier sires in the World Top 30 - Dubawi has racked up one top-class performance after another and, notably, at all distances from five furlongs (Astrophysical Jet) to a mile and a half (Monterosso at Royal Ascot, and Prince Bishop, last weekend at Longchamp in the G2 Prix du Conseil de Paris, against “olders”).

Having won Ireland’s G1 National Stakes over seven furlongs at two, Dubawi’s two Group 1 wins at three were at a mile (Irish 2000 Guineas, Prix Jacques le Marois), though he did stay well enough to finish third in the G1 Epsom Derby, and his dam, Zomaradah, was a Group 1 winner over 10-11 furlongs. So there are elements in his pedigree and race record that suggest he could sire horses that stay further than he did himself; well, look at Oasis Dream, he’s a much more extreme example of it.

In his first Northern Hemisphere crop of about 115 foals, Dubawi has sired at least 11 black-type winners (10 percent), of which eight are group winners (seven percent), percentages that straightaway place him in the top rung of sires. He struck early in the year with G3 Premio Paroli (Italian 2000 Guineas) winner Worthadd - who later added the G2 Italian Derby – and then announced himself in the big time with Makfi’s shock win in the G1 2000 Guineas. After a poor run behind Canford Cliffs in the G1 St. James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, Makfi returned in August to upset Goldikova and Paco Boy in the G1 Prix Jaques le Marois at Deauville, a race won by both his sire, Dubawi, and his grandsire, Dubai Millennium. Then, when Makfi ran badly for a second and final time at Ascot in September, another colt by Dubawi, previous Group 2 winner Poet’s Voice, jumped up to win the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, defeating Rip Van Winkle (Galileo).

As if this weren’t enough, Dubawi already has at least 11 black-type two-year-olds in his second crop of 113 Northern Hemisphere foals of 2008, of which six are already black-type winners. I could be out of date at any minute, but at the moment I count 17 black-type winners for Dubawi in his first two Northern Hemisphere crops, of which nine are colts and eight are fillies.

I’d say there’s rather a wide distribution of pedigrees he seems to be working with, though it’s hard not to be impressed that both Makfi (Green Desert) and Poet’s Voice (Chief’s Crown) are out of mares by Danzig-line sires. Also, although he is a Mr. Prospector-line stallion, being by Dubai Millennium, by Seeking the Gold, Dubawi is definitely going “off piste” for most Mr. Prospector-line stallions, in that he already has two group winners out of mares by other Mr. Prospector-line sires.

These are : last weekend’s aforementioned Prince Bishop, out of a mare by Prospect Bay (he was by Crafty Prospector out of, interestingly, a Danzig mare); and the recent French two-year-old G3 Prix Eclipse winner Split Trois, who is out of a Zafonic mare.

Even stranger : one of Dubawi’s two Group 1 winners from his first Southern Hemisphere crop (now three-year-olds) is out of a mare by Secret Savings - a son of Seeking the Gold, meaning Dubawi’s Australian Group 1 winner Secret Admirer isn’t just Mr. Prospector over Mr. Prospector, she is 3x3 to Seeking the Gold! That kind of off-piste behavior, combined with the sort of class percentages Dubawi has been racking up, often heralds a really important new star sire rising.

Dubai Millennium, who Sheikh Mohammed patently thought was the best horse he ever owned, was cut down after just one season at stud; I think it’s ironic that now one of Dubai Millennium’s sons looks like being the best sire Sheikh Mohammed has ever bred and owned. It is really reminiscent of Seattle Slew, himself one of only 60 foals sired by Bold Reasoning in 1974-75, all over again… 30 years later.

The Current World Top 12 Sires

Sire	Farm	Apex	Fee 2010 ($)	Ring	Sold	Yearling Avg ($)
A.P. INDY	Lane’s End	4.88	150,000	28	19	544,736
SMART STRIKE	Lane’s End	3.16	75,000	40	34	252,037
DISTORTED HUMOR	Winstar	2.69	100,000	29	26	381,153
GIANT’S CAUSEWAY	Coolmore	3.09	100,000	73	54	161,483
STREET CRY	Darley	2.96	150,000	40	34	282,752
GALILEO	Coolmore	3.75	Private	62	47	422,698
MONTJEU	Coolmore	2.71	Private	34	28	244,891
DANEHILL DANCER	Coolmore	2.68	Private	42	38	186,145
DANSILI	Juddmonte	2.66	65,000	32	26	231,147
OASIS DREAM	Juddmonte	3.19	65,000	52	45	224,995
PIVOTAL	Cheveley	2.58	65,000	46	37	168,152
DUBAWI	Darley	2.76	20,000	37	33	174,257

Extract from Thoroughbred Daily News

LEADING 2009 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BROODMARE SIRES

Kingmambo
(Photo : Thoroughbred Times)

LEADING BROODMARE SIRES OF
2009 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE GRADE/GROUP1 WINNERS

Stallion	Sire	Winners
KINGMAMBO	Mr Prospector	5
RAINBOW QUEST	Blushing Groom	4
SADLER’S WELLS	Northern Dancer	4
SEEKING THE GOLD	Mr Prospector	4
KRIS	Sharpen Up	3
MR PROSPECTOR	Raise A Native	3
STORM BIRD	Northern Dancer	3

CORRECT AS AT 14 NOVEMBER 2009

The Big Stallion Fee Debate takes centre stage in Keeneland

We’ve been banging on about this subject for the past two months and our reservations about the capacity of the South African market are now well known.

That the international market is not able to afford the present top-end service fees (for it’s own reasons), is evident in the events that took place at the opening of the biggest, and most prestigious, yearling sale in the world. The progeny of the great Storm Cat were averaging just US$300,000 off a stud fee of US$500,000, and 33% were left unsold. Only one recorded more than the service fee.

Reporting from Keeneland, the world’s top commentator on the subject, Bill Oppenheim submitted the following article which appeared in the Thoroughbred Daily News.

THE BUYERS SPEAK
Storm CatWhat you saw yesterday was the low ebb of Book 1: down 23% in gross, down 27% in average, but a median down just 3%, from $310,000 to $300,000. That was a very significant figure yesterday, $300,000. The 18 horses bought by Darley (John Ferguson, 13) and Coolmore (D.L. O’Byrne, 5) averaged $1,058,889; the 153 yearlings bought by everybody else averaged $315,915. You’ve heard of Storm Cat? Sixteent catalogued yesterday, one out, so 15 through the ring, of which 10 sold. There were a couple of expensive buy-backs, but of the 10 sold, only one (the full sister to Bluegrass Cat, at $1 million) sold for more than the stud fee, and the 10 averaged $338,000—two-thirds of the stud fee. Happily, both Storm Cat and the sale are going to make significant recoveries today, when the lists are much longer than yesterday’s. But yesterday’s gross dropped $20 million, from $87.9-million last year to just under $67.4 million yesterday. Tuesday last year grossed $94,960,000, so today’s session will! lt has to be a completely different sale to recover that kind of ground.

The very serious message from yesterday’s session is that most serious buyers outside of the Big Two can only pay an average of $300,000 for Book 1 horses. Okay, maybe that goes up today, but it won’t be going up that much. Breeders will surely demand a very serious downward adjustment in upper echelon stud fees; if it sinks in that they’re only going to average $300,000 for Book 1 yearlings, how are they going to pay $200,000-plus stud fees? Even the most optimistic breeders can see that doesn’t add up.

TITAN SIREWATCH: Neutral A.P. Indy had three sell to Darley and one to Coolmore. Darley bought two by Darley sire Street Cry, one by Darley sire Elusive Quality, two by Distorted Humor, and one each by neutral stallions Dynaformer, Empire Maker, Silver Deputy, Smart Strike and Vindication. Coolmore also signed for one each by their sires Galileo and Fusaichi Pegasus, and one each by neutral stallions Seeking the Gold and El Corrdeor.