MY OLD KENTUCKY HOME

Photos from Claiborne Farm…
(Image and Footage : Mrs LW)

“If you keep quiet and listen,
it’s evident you can learn a lot at Claiborne.”

Mick Goss
Summerhill Stud CEOA year ago to the day, and fresh out of a Warren Buffett presentation of epic proportions, we were winding our way to Churchill Downs for the curtain-raiser to America’s greatest horse race, the Kentucky Derby. The first Saturday in May marks the “Run for the Roses”, and in 2011, we were there to witness a famous victory for Summerhill clients, Team Valor, and their new-found hero, Animal Kingdom. Our friends at Team Valor bid for a double tomorrow with Went The Day Well, though they could’ve been represented in a three way assault if things had gone their way, double-handed as they are in the talent at their disposal.

For several days we traversed the pikes and turnpikes of Lexington, from one great farm to another, renewing our acquaintances with old friends like A.P. Indy, Pulpit, Distorted Humor and Dynaformer and a few new pretenders, Tapit, Malibu Moon and Giant’s Causeway. We kicked off deep in Bourbon County, just outside of Paris, Kentucky, like Mooi River, a slow town alongside a little railway station which looks as if it was a remnant of the Civil War. Everywhere are the fields of dreams, dotted with oak trees and enclosed by identical four-rail fences, all stained black. Wisps of fog hover low over the blue grass which has been washed bright green by a summer shower. Every so often, the columns of a white mansion peek discreetly through a cluster of trees. The mood is such that if Scarlett O’Hara was suddenly to glide by in hooped skirts, carrying a parasol and cooing, you would probably think, yes, she fits well enough. We are, after all, in a rare place, some of the richest farming dirt in the world. Old families, old money, nicely understated. A warm hand of friendship greets you, much like your arrival at Summerhill, but this time with a greeting “good to see y’all”, which can be confusing if, as often happens, there is only one of you. Like us, the racehorse is the reason for it all.

The Hancock’s Claiborne Farm is just outside Paris. No farm anywhere has more influenced the evolution of the American thoroughbred this last century. Claiborne is all about the brotherhood and, God knows, it is understated: no bragging, no hussle, no brochures in technicolor. Claiborne has been going so long it is a shrine as much as a business, and like us, it’s only as good as its current batch of stallions. You learn soon enough why Claiborne is what it is. All you need do, is watch and listen.

I recall my visit to Claiborne in the dead of winter, 1988. We were there to buy Coastal, the first American classic winner to set foot on African shores. Clay Arnold, one of the stallion men, was stooped by his 70 years, yet there was a boyish serenity in his face. You figure this was because he liked horses and the place, and never wanted to do anything else, and Clay said “you figured right”. He clipped the lead shank on the old bay stallion who was bathed in a pale yellow glow by the sunlight streaming into his box. Most things at Claiborne are in pale yellow, including the paint on the stables. The stallion stepped out calmly, tall with a great length of rein, and a head that was surely what the man meant when he coined the line about “the look of eagles”. But the bay was light of flesh on top and behind, the near-hind was swollen up to the hock, the off-fetlock was so thickened as to be deformed, turned way out and filled so tightly that pink skin flared through the white hairs just above the hoof.

The old horse was grinding away on courage at the end of his career: he was not about to play the invalid now. The light still burnt brightly in his eye. He let us rub his forehead, but he did not acknowledge us. Like any good stallion, he does not look at you, but over and beyond, out over the fields of dreams. He was Nijinsky, the last winner of the English Triple Crown in 1970. Here was another Claiborne legend, the genuine article, the sire of 125 Stakes winners and a sales yearling who brought $13 million (about R104 million). Clay Arnold had handled a few legends. He merely touched the old horse on the neck and drawled: “yessir, he’s a nice horse… a nice horse… I like him a lot, yessir”.

Claiborne is also about ghosts. To feel them you need but step into the stallion cemetary, and read the names on the grey headstones. Nasrullah, died 1959, one of the immortal sires… Secretariat, the great red horse with flaring nostrils who won the Belmont by 31 lengths… Bold Ruler… Round Table… Princequillo… Blenheim… Galant Fox… Buckpasser… Court Martial. Go to a yearling sale anywhere in the world, Dublin, Buenos Aires, Sydney or Johannesburg, and these names appear on practically every page of the catalogue. Claiborne was running out of burying room, but there was a place for Nijinsky. Standing there though, he seemed happy to stay out of the place. He stood quietly for us, and never thought to fidget.

Clay brought up stallion after stallion; not one played up. At last there was Mr. Prospector, whose blood runs so thick and so deep here at Summerhill these days, and who stood for around $300,000 in those days. And little Danzig, commanding much the same fee and built in the classic Northern Dancer mould: neat, strong through the body and with a lovely head and jowl. As I’ve said, all you had to do to learn was to watch. These stallions were so well behaved, so content, because generations of stallion-handling were built into Claiborne. The place has always believed in the primacy of stallions, in the farming truism that a good bull is half your herd, and a bad bull is all your herd.

Claiborne has been chasing stallions since Captain Richard Hancock came back from the Civil War, determined to breed the best. He chased stallions in Europe, South America and Australia, looking for hybrid vigour, for that magical beast who outbreeds his own pedigree and performances, and South Africa has not been exempt from their shopping list. Hawaii, officially a son of Utrillo, but rumoured in fact to have been sired by Joy II, was one South African who had the distinction of getting a winner of England’s most famous race, the Epsom Derby, as well as a second and a third in the same race. Horse Chestnut, as good a racehorse as this country’s known, was another to grace those historic pastures. No family has done more to turn the American thoroughbred into an international commodity than the Hancocks.

And so the story goes on, one great stallion after another, and sooner or later we will provide you with a little more of the history of this great farm.

The most intriguing building on Claiborne is not the white stallion barn with its yellow trim and the brass name plates that tell you that Bold Ruler and Secretariat lived here. It is the breeding shed. In recent times, some very elaborate breeding sheds have gone up in various parts of the world, complete with hot and cold running vets, lasers, rubber floors, videos, and all the software of the hi-tech age. They have the décor of hospitals. The breeding shed at Claiborne is clad with warped slats on which the black paint has blistered and peeled. The shingles on the roof are stained green with mildew. Inside the floor is uneven and covered with bark. The only concession to modern times is the yellow padding around the walls. Yet heaven knows how many great horses have been fashioned in greatness here.

There’ve been only 11 Triple Crown winners in the history of American racing, which brings us back to tomorrow’s race, the Kentucky Derby, the first leg of this illustrious treble. No less than five of these heroes were conceived in this rough old Claiborne shed. A Kentucky horseman, one of the brotherhood, explained it this way: “Yessir, it’s not the fancy things inside the shed that count: it’s the quality of the horses that grow up outside of it once their mothers have passed through the middle”. If you keep quiet and listen, it’s evident you can learn a lot at Claiborne.

ROYAL ACADEMY DIES : THE END OF AN ERA

Tom and Charlie Magnier with Royal Academy
(Photo : Coolmore Stud)

ROYAL ACADEMY (USA)
Nijinsky (CAN) - Crimson Saint (USA)
1987-2012

Coolmore Stud lost the dual Group One winner Royal Academy (Nijinsky - Crimson Saint) last week due to the infirmities of old age. The 25-year-old had sired 165 stakes winners, including 86 Group and Graded winners and spent time at stud in Ireland, Australia, Japan, Britain, the US and Brazil. His top progeny include Top Hat, who won three Group One races, as well as the sires Bel Esprit and Val Royal.

“One of the last links to the great Nijinsky - and to his equally great trainer Dr Vincent O’Brien - came to an end on Wednesday with the death of his son Royal Academy. The 25-year-old stallion succumbed to the infirmities of old age at Coolmore Australia.

“It’s very sad,” said Tom Magnier, “Royal Academy has been a tremendous servant to Coolmore, wherever he’s been based. He spent the last five years of his life here, the last two years in retirement. Particular credit must go to our head stallion man Gerry Ryan, who looked after him with great care and attention. He has been wonderfully prolific, siring more than 160 Stakes winners and his progeny earnings are the equivalent of more than US$120,000,000.” 

“He sired major winners over a wide range of distances, at all ages. I suspect, though, that his greatest legacy is the speed he passed on to the best of his Australian descendants - the brilliant Black Caviar is by one of his sons while champion sire-elect Fastnet Rock is out of one of his daughters.”

Royal Academy first hit the headlines when Vincent O’Brien bid a sales-topping $3,500,000 for him at the 1988 Keeneland July Selected Yearling Sales. In addition to being a very handsome individual, he had the attraction of being out of Storm Cat’s grandam Crimson Saint.

Royal Academy proved a very sound investment for Classic Thoroughbreds Plc. Although Nijinsky’s progeny were usually noted for their stamina, O’Brien took the bold decision to run him in the six furlong July Cup. As so often, O’Brien’s judgment proved spot on and he gained his first Gr.1 success. Royal Academy then finished a good second to the exceptional sprinter Dayjur in the Ladbroke Sprint Cup before ending his career in a blaze of glory when carrying a back-from-retirement Lester Piggott to a stirring victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Belmont Park.

Royal Academy began his stallion career at Coolmore at a fee of IR30,000gns in 1991. His four first-crop Group winners were headed by Oscar Schindler (Irish St Leger) and there was at least one Gr.1 winner in each of his first five Irish crops, thanks to the efforts of Ali-Royal (Sussex Stakes), Carmine Lake (Prix de l’Abbaye), Sleepytime (1,000 Guineas), Zalaiyka (French 1,000 Guineas), Val Royal (Breeders’ Cup Mile) and Lavery (Phoenix Stakes).

Royal Academy also stood at Coolmore’s American branch, Ashford Stud, resulting in among others, Bullish Luck, a star in Hong Kong who also won the Gr.1 Yasuda Kinen in Japan. His Gr.1 winners in Australia included Black Caviar’s sire Bel Esprit, Serious Speed and Kenwood Melody.

He reminded us of his talents in 2007, when the English / Irish 2,000 Guineas double fell to his grandson Cockney Rebel (by Val Royal) and the English / Irish 1,000 Guineas double went to Finsceal Beo, out of a Royal Academy mare. Last year’s European champion 2-year-old Dabirsim is another product of one of his daughters.”

Extract from www.coolmore.com

LAMMTARRA : OF LEGENDS AND WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN...

Click above to watch Lammtarra winning the 1995 Epsom Derby
(Image : Jockeysite - Footage : Sewageable)

LAMMTARRA (USA)
Nijinsky (CAN) - Snow Bride (USA)

Nicola HaywardAs I drove up the High Street in Newmarket the week before Christmas past, I tried to imagine how it might have looked early in 1904. It was difficult given the tarred road, beautiful Christmas lights and decorated storefronts - Marks & Spencer, Sainsburys, and French Connection filled with eager shoppers. Yet it was to 1904 that my mind returned, for that was when Signorina was booked to be covered by the Champion Isinglass. For a decade, the Oaks runner-up had failed to produce a foal and her owner, the Italian trainer Ginistrelli, followed on foot as she was led down the High Street for her planned assignation with Isinglass. On the way Chaleureux, a lowly stallion that was being used as a teaser, passed the aging mare. The two called to one another and refused to move apart and so, on a whim, Ginistrelli allowed his mare her ‘love match’. The result was the filly Signorinetta who in 1908 won the Epsom Derby and two days later the Oaks, a feat not accomplished since.

Myth or legend, it is one of the stories that Newmarket holds and was worthy of consideration. Of course, for one who loves the Thoroughbred, to be in the same country as Frankel, let alone to drive past the yard where he is stabled and trained, was very special. That an entire town can be dedicated to the horses that have for centuries made it their home, is quite remarkable. Bridleways crisscross the suburban roads allowing every animal to reach the gallops safely and the public happily accept that it should be so, as it always has.

Of course, one does not turn down a visit to Dalham Hall Stud. Even though a number of the stallions were on stud duty in Australia and South America, there was the chance to see the mighty Dubawi. A son of Dubai Millenium out of the Deploy mare Zomaradah, he has risen to star status. He won 5 of 8 starts and is a compact bull of a horse. Dubawi is all power and he knows it. His son Poet’s Voice, out of Bright Tiara (Chief’s Crown) was victorious in the 2011 G1 QEII Stakes and is a taller, more elegant horse than his sire. He is bay without white markings and has a beautiful head. He had let down very well and has a good book of mares waiting for his attention once the season begins. Both horses live in roomy stalls in the stallion block that overlooks the graveyard where the memorial to the great Dubai Millennium dwarfs all those around it. It takes one into the past - Singspiel, Machiavellian, Reference Point, Great Nephew…

Then, a woolly, muddy liver chestnut danced toward his stall and the world stopped turning.

Lammtarra.

By Nijinsky (Northern Dancer), out of Snow Bride (Blushing Groom), Lammtarra won his only outing as a two-year-old in 1994. His trainer Alex Scott was certain of classic success but then in a cruel twist of fate, an employee with a grievance shot and killed Scott. The colt was transferred to Godolphin, to Saeed Bin Suroor. Under Walter Swinburn, Lammtarra won The Derby in a time only bettered in 2010 by Workforce. Then under Frankie Detorri he took the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before being retired to stud unbeaten in four starts. His pedigree was impeccable - by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner - and his record faultless. Yet at stud he was a failure. He covered one season at Dalham Hall before being sold to Japan for $30,000,000. Eventually, in 2006, Sheikh Mohammed bought him back and he returned to Dalham Hall to live out his days in retirement.

Do yourself a favour and watch his Derby win above courtesy of YouTube and you will see why it was he more than any other that made my heart soar. It was an old, sprightly gentleman who danced and squealed as his groom led him in who made me smile. It was a Champion now past his prime that made me wonder what if? Why not? And ask the question what might have been…

THE DRAMATIC DECLINE IN US STALLION FEES

Click above to watch a tribute to Northern Dancer…
(Image and Footage : YouTube)

“My, my, my, how the mighty have fallen…”

On my first visit to the United States in 1986, I was privileged to visit the great farms of Kentucky, and to see the legends of those days in the flesh. On one farm, the Hancock family’s Claiborne, were Nijinsky, Danzig, Mr. Prospector, Spectacular Bid, Damascus and Conquistador Cielo, Sir Ivor, Topsider and Hawaii. But it was Northern Dancer who stood out above all, and his stud fee in those days stood at US$950,000 (on its way to $1 million). I was looking at a published schedule of current stud fees in the US a few days back, which reminded me of the brochures I’d brought back from my maiden voyage to what was then the epicentre of world breeding. These were the fees :

US STALLION FEES - 1986

Fee (US$)	Stallion
950,000	NORTHERN DANCER
750,000	SEATTLE SLEW
450,000	ALYDAR
400,000	NIJINSKY
275,000	BLUSHING GROOM
275,000	DANZIG
275,000	LYPHARD
275,000	MR. PROSPECTOR
250,000	SPECTACULAR BID
225,000	ROBERTO
225,000	SLEW O’ GOLD
200,000	NUREYEV
200,000	EL GRAN SENOR
200,000	DEVIL’S BAG
185,000	THE MINSTREL
150,000	VAGUELY NOBLE
150,000	CONQUISTADOR CIELO
125,000	CARO
125,000	DAMASCUS
125,000	RIVERMAN
125,000	STORM BIRD

Another six stallions commanded six-figure fees, making a total of 27.

Twenty six years later, there are only a handful of six figure stallions, the top price in the US being $150,000. My recollection of the top horses in 2011 is as follows :

US STALLION FEES - 2011

Fee (US$)	Stallion
150,000	A.P. INDY
150,000	DYNAFORMER
150,000	STREET CRY
125,000	DISTORTED HUMOR
120,000	UNBRIDLED SONG
85,000	GIANT’S CAUSEWAY *

* Champion Sire of the last two seasons

You wonder how the industry sustained itself in the late 1980’s (and that’s probably why when the world went belly-up in the latter part of that decade, things tumbled right out of bed), and then by contrast, you’d have to ask how farms are making it today off these substantially reduced numbers.

THE THOROUGHBRED INDUSTRY IN EVOLUTION

SOME NEW RULES
“Extract from the desk of Bill Oppenheim”

Some things have changed an awful lot in the last 20 years in this business, and in this week’s column I’d like to talk about a few of them: what has changed, why have they changed, and how the business has responded, and is responding, to these changes. Of course, some things haven’t changed much, and we’ll talk about one or two of those, too.

Those of us who were working in the business in the 1980’s have to remember that anybody born in 1970 or later - that’s 40 years old this year and younger - didn’t live through the first Golden Age of the Thoroughbred sales, nor the crash of 1986-1992. It isn’t important that they didn’t know about the ups and downs of the marketplace and business until about the middle of 2007. No, what it means is our business’ thirtysomethings have never seen a time when North American racing was dominated by the big stables of owner-breeders (unlike those of us from previous generations), nor were they around when the Europeans and Japanese bought hundreds of well-bred mares in Kentucky, decimating the North American broodmare band.

For today’s thirtysomethings, the North American breeding market has always been a commercial one, especially given the doubling of stallions’ book sizes and, to some extent, dual-hemisphere shuttling. When they hear our generation talk about “great families,” they must scratch their heads and wonder why these families - if they are so great - have been producing so few top horses for the last 20 years. The two things just about have to be connected, it seems to me: few owner/breeders in North America, fewer still new “great families.”

Things have changed a lot in Europe, too. From having a handful of the best stallions in North America and Europe, they now have half of the top 20 available. Plus, there are a number of large, active owner/breeders with broodmare bands in the hundreds: the Maktoum family, of course, including Darley, Shadwell and Rabbah (surely well over a thousand mares among them); Prince Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms; the Aga Khan; and even Coolmore, though they are half commercial breeders, too, since their primary objective is to stock Ballydoyle and associates with maybe a hundred two-year-olds a year, including what they buy at the sales. Breeders love to buy at the annual culls, from the Aga Khan’s and Juddmonte operations in particular.

Still, even though these big operations have broodmare bands in the hundreds, it seems to me these days it’s not so much a case of there being one or more families in particular that turn out class horses as if from a gusher. Rather, it’s more a matter of them having so many class mares, they produce a certain number of top horses. Breeders tend to buy because it’s “an” Aga Khan family, or “a” Juddmonte family, rather than a particular family or families, which is more what we used to talk about - the Rough Shod family, the La Troienne family, and so on.

What Yearling Buyers Want…

During the first Golden Age of the Thoroughbred marketplace (1978-1985), yearling buyers would roughly weigh three factors of relatively equal importance: the sire, the dam’s side, and the yearling’s conformation. It wasn’t so much that they were weighted equally, but that any of the three factors could be a reason for throwing the horse out. Then came the crash of 1986-1992, when many top pedigrees went into private hands or were exported to Japan.

Coupled with the decline in owner/breeders in North America (which was then producing twice as many foals as Great Britain, Ireland and France combined), by the time we arrived at the Second Golden Age (1998-2007), the nature of one of the three factors had changed: there were fewer truly good first dams in yearling pedigrees. Over the last decade, buyers increasingly concentrated on the sire and conformation. Whereas previously the ratio of factors for “inclusion,” let us say, were 33-33-33, now they would be more like 40-20-40, the reduction coming in the importance of the first dam to yearling buyers relative to the other two factors. Yearling buyers, as a collective group, have made this abundantly clear over the past few years.

At the same time, within the context of its reduced influence, the pecking order on “the dam’s side of the page” also changed. A study carried out by Gary Hadden found that 29 percent of the dams of about 3,000 graded/group stakes winners in 1998-2003 were themselves black-type winners. When we compared those to the profile of racing fillies sired by two top broodmare sires of recent years, Alydar and Affirmed, we found that about 12 percent of their fillies were black-type winners. We have seen independent research which comes up with a similar 12-percent figure. So, the fact that as high as 29 percent of the dams of graded winners were themselves black-type winners looks pretty significant.

What does this all mean in English? It means, if you’re a commercial breeder contemplating buying a mare, your best bet is to buy a black-type winner. It doesn’t mean she should only be a black type winner; breeding history is replete with outfits that banked solely on black type to the exclusion of other pedigree considerations, such as the mare’s sire and the mare’s actual female family. But the research does tell us that black-type mares (black-type placed, too, though not as strongly as black type winners) have moved up the value scale, and non-black-type mares, no matter how good their pedigrees, have moved down the scale. A non-black-type mare is not worth as much as a producer of commercial yearlings as she used to be. So whether it’s actually a good idea, financially, to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on mares who could not get black type must be more open to question now than was the case 20 years ago. This may appear to be less the case in Europe than in North America because of these other factors we’ve mentioned, but I’m not entirely sure that’s the case, either.

What Euros Want…

Another huge difference between the Thoroughbred market in the 1980’s and the market now is the level of participation by European buyers in the North American (essentially, Kentucky) market.

Though they still constitute a significant portion of especially the upper reaches of the North American market, there is a powerful layer of European buyers below the Maktoums and Coolmore who are not active in North America, whereas 20 or 30 years ago half of them would have mares in Kentucky and be breeding to Kentucky stallions.

Part of the explanation, of course, is that the ratio of top 20 stallions went from something like 80-20 in favor of Kentucky to 50-50. European breeders now have much a much better group stallions to breed to - certainly just as good as the group in Kentucky - for European racing. But there’s something else, too, and it’s something really fundamental to the value of horses in the marketplace: Europeans do not understand North American black type below the graded level and, as a consequence, they do not have the confidence to invest in American black type like they used to.

I don’t think it is possible to underestimate the true influence of black type. It was the invention of black type in the 1950’s that resulted in the creation of a scale of value in pedigrees which - refined by the introduction of the Pattern of Graded and Group Races in 1972 - provided the very framework for the growth of the auction sales. These peaked at over $1.8 billion annually in North America and Europe in 2006-2007. I’m not saying it wouldn’t exist; I’m saying the creation of black type provides the framework from which specific scales of value can evolve.

The Europeans are right to be confused, because as it has evolved, there is a huge anomaly in the qualification for black type in favor of North America. To put it in a nutshell, there are three kinds of black type: graded (in North America) or group (in Europe) - Pattern Races; then there are listed races; finally, non-listed black type races. The shocking truth is this: in the major European countries - Great Britain, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy - there are no black type races below listed standard, according to the International Cataloguing Standards booklet issued by the IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities) for the year 2008. In North America in 2008, there were 1,890 black-type races, and 1,148 of them, or 61 percent, were non-listed, black-type races - in other words, below listed class.

It’s no wonder Europeans can’t make head nor tail of American catalogues, and therefore lack the confidence to buy. Percentage of black-type races below listed class in Europe: zero; percentage of black-type races below listed standard in North America: 61 percent. In a racing population in Europe, if the top tier was 39 percent black-type, the tier below (which in North America is 61 percent of black-type horses) would be high-level handicappers, say horses with Official Ratings in Britain and Ireland of 100, maybe even 95. Europeans don’t consider these black-type horses because they’re below listed standard. But in America, about 1.5 times the number of horses which are listed standard and above are still black-type horses.

There is a devastatingly simple solution: instead of calling them listed races, change the name: call them Grade 4 in North America, and Group 4 in Europe. By adding the G4 option, we would all understand it much better. Europeans could simply see if black-type listings in a pedigree included any “G” designations; that would restore their confidence in the system. The Americans could continue to assign black type as they have, confident both that Europeans would understand North American black type much better, and that they themselves would, too. Of course, it would require a change, from Listed to Grade/Group 4, but all you’re doing is renaming a classification to make it more understandable for everyone.

One other matter cited by Europeans concerning their reluctance to buy in the U.S. is “the medication issue.” At least some European professionals harbor the view that racing on medication by definition signals a weakness in the breed, and therefore they are very wary of breeding to horses that have raced on medication. Since something like 99 percent of American horses now race on Lasix, it becomes a kind of “reducto ad absurdum” - an absurd argument - to ignore American breeding, which they already find confusing. But I would like to say this is a point of view which seems to me to have absolutely no evidence to support it.

For example, the following horses all raced on Lasix: Medaglia d’Oro (sire of two Group 1 two-year-olds in Europe last year); Elusive Quality (sire of Raven’s Pass and Elusive Pimpernel); Distorted Humor; Street Cry; Tale of the Cat; Lemon Drop Kid; and so on. There is one very good reason, even now, why Europeans should still be looking to the U.S. for horses to race in Europe: the success rate is high. America produces twice as many horses every year as the three top European countries combined, and a good many of them can run. The fact their parents raced on medication hasn’t changed things at all, as far as I can see; availability of sires and the pedigree issues I’ve discussed; might have. But the medication knock: can’t buy it. Not proven.

What Euros Got: Inbreeding to Northern Dancer…

This is an issue that seems to still be keeping bloggers, other pedigree buffs and professionals occupied: is there too much inbreeding generally, and is there too much inbreeding to Northern Dancer in particular? Brianne and I will be doing some further research on this in the next few weeks, when the new APEX numbers come out to include all 2009 racing, but in the meantime, I’ve been doing some work on the matter with a database of some 12,000 A Runners foaled 1996-2005, through racing of 2008.

These are very definitely limited measurements. We are measuring only within this population of 12,000, not taking into account what is called “opportunity in the general population.” This is a big thing with a lot of people now, how things ought to be measured against opportunity in the general population. I used to think it would be better if I could do that, but I don’t think so any more. As far as I’m concerned, the “general population” consists of 98 percent of horses that are not “A Runners” (top two percent earners), and two percent which are. I’m not sure I even believe it’s meaningful to compare one population to another essentially 50 times its size.

The other limitation on the information I analyzed is that the “inbreeding” is only “sire on damsire,” or what has also been called “first cross” data. Though this is the most frequently occurring form of inbreeding, there are many other combinations, especially involving the sire’s damsire and the second dam’s sire. I can’t count those - that’s a limitation of the system.

Even given those limitations, what I can count yields what seem to be to be impressive results. The incidence of “Northern Dancer over Northern Dancer” as a percentage of all Northern Dancer-line sired A Runners, by year foaled, 1996-2005, has increased from 13.2 percent among 380 Northern Dancer-line sired A Runners foaled in 1996 to 22.4 percent of the 566 Northern Dancer-line sired A Runners foaled in 2004, and 22.7 percent of the 409 Northern Dancer-line sired A Runners of 2005 (including just three-year-olds by the end of 2008, so the number of 2005-foaled A Runners will have increased significantly by the end of 2009). The percentage of “Northern Dancer over Northern Dancer” A Runners as a percentage of the entire population of A Runners foaled that year has increased from 4.3 percent (50) of the 1,151 A Runners foaled in 1996 to 9.3 percent (127) of the 1,371 A Runners foaled in 2004, and 9.6 percent (93) of the 967 A Runners (through the end of 2008) foaled in 2005.

Those trend lines tell us one thing: Whatever the theories, it is working. Is “Northern Dancer over Northern Dancer” nine or 10 percent of the whole population? I don’t know, and I don’t think I care. What I can see for sure is that, as a percentage of the annual population of new A Runners, the percentage has more than doubled in the last 10 years. How much faster could it possibly be expected to accelerate?

My conclusion: We shouldn’t even be discussing “Northern Dancer over Northern Dancer” any more, except as a sort of umbrella designation, like “Native Dancer” or “Nasrullah” are now used. Northern Dancer is so successful, so powerful, that it really has branched off into nine separate sire lines (in my classifications, one of those lines is actually “Nearctic other than Northern Dancer,” such as Explodent, Icecapade, and Wild Again. Even though it’s historically incorrect, because Nearctic was also Northern Dancer’s sire, that’s the way I classify it). Of the nine, Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, and Storm Cat/Storm Bird are the most active; Nureyev and Deputy Minister/Vice Regent may or may not survive as active sire lines. Nijinsky, Lyphard, Nearctic, and miscellaneous Northern Dancer (includes the likes of The Minstrel and, more recently, Dixieland Band) are very unlikely to survive as sire lines. In any case, it’s time to stop talking about Northern Dancer over Northern Dancer and start talking about, for example, Danzig over Sadler’s Wells - a cross that didn’t even exist in 1996, but had 39 A Runners through the end of 2008, including 11 foaled in 2004. The “cross index,” at that point, came out at 2.39, when 1.00 is average.

Well, I could keep going: the myth that a horse has to be a Grade/Group 1 winner to “really” count for something (Grade/Group 2 winners: Distorted Humor, Pulpit, Dansili); and what really hasn’t changed: prizemoney. The Irish figured out a couple of years ago that prizemoney could be funded by a two percent commission, ring-fenced for that purpose, on all bets, regardless of who placed them; how they were placed (what platform); and where. The endemic problem in this industry is still that the buzz is at the sales, not the racetrack: the tail is still wagging the dog. Ultimately, the industry can only grow by attracting new owners, and an obvious way to attract new owners is to improve prizemoney to the point where owners have a fighting chance, instead of having to accept a desultory return. But that’s another subject. In the meantime, I persist in believing the best strategy for success, or at least the best shot at success, in this business is to see things how they are, not how they used to be, or how we wish they would be. Happy New Year.

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