KEENELAND SEPTEMBER RUNAWAY TRAIN

HIP 307 - Keeneland Sale Tuesday Top Lot
(Photo : Bloodstock Journal)

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE
11 - 24 September 2011

Well, not quite a runaway train, but the Keeneland September Sales in America continued to roar ahead on the third day, with the cumulative average up more than 10% on the corresponding day last year, and the median (the mid-price, and the one that really counts when it comes to measuring market depth) up a remarkable 33,3% (at $200,000 or +- R1,5 million). The encouraging thing is that the top 11 horses (seven colts and four fillies to make $400,000 plus) all fell to domestic buyers; no sign of the Maktoums or Coolmore. A strong domestic market is fundamental to the strength of any economy, and this is a particularly encouraging result for America, given their downscaled credit rating and their structural economic difficulties of the current time. Here are yesterday’s prices:

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER TOP LOTS
Tuesday 13 September 2011

HIP	Sex	$
307	F	1,200,000
469	C	600,000
426	C	510,000
398	C	470,000
437	F	460,000
400	F	450,000
321	C	410,000
312	C	400,000
353	C	400,000
404	F	400,000
483	C	400,000

Hard to imagine, but wouldn’t it be marvellous if this were the Ready To Run.

LAND OF THE RICH AND FAMOUS

Hip 87 A.P Indy - Malka $1,400,000
(Photo and Footage : Keeneland)

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE
11 - 24 September 2011

The Americans have been called lots of things, including “the free and the brave”, but the results of this weekend’s start to the Keeneland September sales (showcase of American breeding,) and the just-completed Fasig Tipton Saratoga sale, tell us that Americans (or at least some of them) have put aside their economic woes for the time being, in favour of a splurge on the ponies.

Saratoga showed some encouraging signs, but Keeneland (there are still more than 10 days to go) was roaring. Given that this year’s figures were competing with a $4.2million A.P. Indy colt on the first day last year, an average of 8.6% up (with a highest price of $1.4million) was encouragement enough, but it was in the median of $350,000 (the mid-price of the day) that there was cause for jubilation. This was a hefty 40% up, and it tells you how strong the market was at all levels. Investors know that racehorses are an international currency, you can take them anywhere if they’re good enough, and if they’re really good, the big prize is anybody’s guess.

Of course, there is a gamble involved, but it seems it’s one the rich are prepared to take. These numbers are a long way off the heady days of a few years ago, but they at least encourage the view that the market has bottomed and that breeders can continue, with a modicum of confidence, to breed these noble creatures, knowing that there is a point of appreciation in the hearts of Americans, beneath which values are not going to descend.

Perhaps of greater significance to Americans, was the fact that, by and large, the bulk of the big spenders were domestically based. Apart from the odd horse purchased by Shadwell, there was little evidence of participation from the Middle East, though their principal adversaries of the past decade, Coolmore, were back in the fray. Noticeably, the Irish purchases included the progeny of Maktoum stallions, an acknowledgement that for them at least, who owns the sire is not the determining factor: it’s a matter of who the best sires are, and for the past two years, Coolmore’s dabbles in the Maktoum gene pool suggests their interest lies mainly in their wish to maintain their position as the dominant force in world racing through the acquisition of the best horses, wherever they may be found.

Since the local environment is not, by any means, in the sort of trouble the American economy finds itself, there has to be some hope for our market as well. South African horses are more talented now than at any time in our history. Breeders have invested more heavily in their product than any of their predecessors did, and our horses have repaid the faith owners have bestowed upon them, by delivering the goods at the highest level wherever the best races are found.

WORLD'S BIGGEST THOROUGHBRED YEARLING AUCTION

A.P. Arrow
(Photo : Summerhill Stud)

“KEENE AS MUSTARD”

The world’s biggest thoroughbred yearling auction is currently under way on land once owned by the fabled American breeder, James Keene. Over the road from the Lexington airport (itself on land once owned by another legend, Nelson Bunker Hunt, the silver king), the Keeneland sales ring has seen reassuringly solid trade throughout the week.

The part of the sale which most resembles the halcyon days of the old July vendue featuring Northern Dancer, Njinksky, Mr. Prospector, Danzig and Seattle Slew, is what is modernly referred to as Book One.

While the numbers are a far cry from the seven figure averages of those days, so are the times we live in. But if you’re looking for a silver lining, it lies with A.P. Indy and his sons, Bernardini and Malibu Moon. And if you’re South African, it has be with his best racing son in these parts, A.P. Arrow.

Sire	Cat	Ring	Sold	Avg ($)
A.P. INDY (Seattle Slew)	16	15	10	797,500
DISTORTED HUMOR (Forty Niner)	17	14	13	515,000
BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy)	10	8	7	410,714
MALIBU MOON (A.P. Indy)	5	5	4	395,000
MR. GREELEY (Gone West)	12	10	7	368,571
DYNAFORMER (Roberto)	8	8	7	366,429
STREET CRY (IRE) (Machiavellian)	13	9	6	314,167
UNBRIDLE’S SONG (Unbridled)	11	8	8	288,125
EMPIRE MAKER (Unbridled)	10	9	6	277,500
SMART STRIKE (Mr Prospector)	11	7	6	268,333
GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (Storm Cat)	21	20	11	250,000
HARD SPUN (Danzig)	7	7	4	141,250

Editors Note :
A.P. Arrow was A.P Indy’s best racing son worldwide in 2008.

GONE MISSING : SHEIKH MOHAMMED

Sheikh Mohammed
(Photo : Daily Mail / Keeneland)

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE

According to the Thoroughbred Daily News, it was another strong night of selling at Keeneland September, the world’s biggest racehorse auction. But, for the first time in well over a decade, very little of the good news was attributable to the participation of Sheikh Mohammed and his bloodstock agent John Ferguson. Over the years, Sheikh Mohammed has spent hundreds of millions of dollars at September, and the sight of his 747 jumbo jet sitting on the tarmac at Blue Grass Airport was reassuring to many sellers. And it’s easy to see why.

From 1999 through 2009, Ferguson led all buyers in spending 10 out of the 11 years. (Coolmore’s Demi O’Byrne was the lone exception, in 2007.) Ferguson has signed for September toppers four times, including the $9.7 million Jalil (Storm Cat) and the $11.7 million Meydan City (Kingmambo).

His expenditures reached a staggering $59 million plus in 2006 - the year he acquired Meydan City - when he bought 34 horses. And while Sheikh Mohammed’s participation dropped dramatically over the past three years, he still was a major force. Last year, Ferguson purchased 34 yearlings at September, paying $13,980,000 for them. Other operations with ties to Sheikh Mohammed, such as Rabbah Bloodstock, also contributed to the outlay.

But Ferguson’s name has been hard to find on the 2010 results sheets. Through Book 1, he’s bought just two horses, a Bernardini - Victory Ride colt Monday for $450,000; and a Street Cry - Hidden Cat colt yesterday for $200,000. And Sheikh Mohammed, who hasn’t missed a September sale in at least nine years, has yet to make a public appearance.

Opinions as to why Sheikh Mohammed has scaled back his spending are varied. Some believe the ongoing economic woes of Dubai, the United Arab Emirates of which Sheikh Mohammed is ruler, have played a part.

Keeneland’s Director of Sales Geoffrey Russell, however, points to the worldwide expansion of Sheikh Mohammed’s breeding interests as a major factor.

“John spoke earlier this year and said that Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley would not be as dependent on the yearling market as it has been in the past, with the purchase of Stonerside in this country and Widden Stud in Australia,” said Russell. “So it (the cutback in spending) wasn’t a huge surprise to me, and I don’t think it was a huge surprise to consignors.”

Russell thinks there are even positives to the situation.

“I think that, without the strong participation of Darley, it has opened up opportunities for other buyers who in the past haven’t been successful and have been frustrated,” he said. “Now they are able to buy these horses at a level they are comfortable with. I think that’s better for the whole market - more buyers spread over more horses - and there’s more competition.”

Meanwhile, Sheikh Mohammed’s brother, Shadwell owner Sheikh Hamdan, has continued to be a player at September. Shadwell currently is the second-leading buyer at September after two nights, with six purchases totaling $2,885,000. Last year, Shadwell purchased two yearlings for $1,230,000.

A.P. INDY : THE LEGACY

$4.2 Million Hip 14 A.P. Indy - Balance
(Image and Footage : Keeneland)

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE

The pervasive influence of A.P. Indy was in evidence at the biggest racehorse sale in the world, Keeneland September. According to Bill Oppenheim’s Apex ratings, A.P. Indy isn’t only the Emperor of American stallions, he is the highest ranked stallion on earth, and the extent to which the top priced colt in the sale exceeded the money paid for the second horse through the ring, exemplifies it.

Admittedly, the colt’s dam was a champion herself, but there are many of these represented in the most prestigious catalogue in the world. It is the towering presence of A.P. Indy that compels the inspection, and after that, it’s a matter of what the richest will pay to beat the richest.

There was a lot of concern and indeed, pessimism about the state of the international market, some of it justified. The biggest concern must’ve centred on the relative silence of the guns of the world’s two biggest sales protagonists, the Maktoum Family of Dubai and Team Coolmore of Ireland, at recent international sales, and particularly Deauville last month. It was encouraging then, to see the under bidder on the $4,2 million son of A.P. Indy, was none less than Coolmore, obviously in an attempt to provide some diversity to the very concentrated strains of Sadler’s Wells and Danehill which have served them so well at their Irish base, and to bolster the ranks of their American operation, Ashford.

It was also encouraging, to see long-time Summerhill patron, Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum as active as his Shadwell Estate Company has been, and to see Sheikh Mohammed’s man, John Ferguson, notching up a couple in the top twenty. Beyond that though, we need to remember that Ben Leon, a new player in these echelons, who made a final bid for this colt, and that just a fortnight ago, Middle Eastern interests paid a reported €11.5 million for the hero of the English 2000 Guineas and the Prix Jacques le Marois, Makfi, by the new sire sensation, Dubawi. Fresh blood is the staff of life, and heavens knows, every industry needs it.

Keeneland’s opening two days were quite remarkable, some 20% up on last year. Here are some salient features of the Sunday and Monday sessions.

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLINGS
BOOK1 12-13 SEPTEMBER 2010 

Totals	Book 1 Totals
Catagued	211
Number Offered	185
Number Sold	127
RNA’s	58
% RNA	31.3%
Number $500k+	18
High Price	$4,200,000
Gross	$44,305,000
Average (% change)	$348,858
Median (% change)	$285,000