"Thin Ice" from the desk of Bill Oppenheim

Goffs Sale Ring (goffs ireland)Nobody knows more about the breeding and sales side of the business than the auction companies, sales consignors, and bloodstock agents (true), so when Tattersalls Chairman Edmond Mahony noted the scepter of overproduction hanging over the European yearling markets last month—comments echoed by Goffs/DBS CEO Henry Beeby after last week’s Goffs November Mixed sale—it’s worth paying attention to. Though the inevitably upbeat post-sale propaganda refers to the ‘second-highest’ this and ‘near-record’ that, the cracks in the ice were evident at Goffs last week, and again at Tattersalls’ opening yearling session of their 10-session December sale (which actually does take place mostly in December this year) Monday.

Just look at the numbers. As the accompanying Weekly Sales Ticker table shows, the number sold for the entire eight days at Goffs was down by 5 percent from 1,154 last year to 1,099 this year. The gross was off by EUR3.3 million (9 percent), and the average was down 4 percent. But what is really telling is that last year the 1,154 listed sales constituted 78 percent of the 1,475 horses sent through the ring. This year, there were 1,765 horses offered—20 percent more than in 2006—yet the 1,099 listed sales represented just 62 percent of those sent through the ring. The clearance rate declined by 20 percent, and even with 20 percent more horses offered, the gross was down almost 10 percent.

Clearly, a lot of horses were offered that people just didn’t want, and, from the reports, a big reason for that was the absence of a lot of the Irish domestic property development and construction industry money, which has especially fueled the Goffs sales the last couple of years. Not entirely surprising considering plenty of evidence that house prices are down by as much as 20 percent in the U.S., Britain and Ireland. The dose was repeated at Tattersalls Monday for the end-of-season yearlings. This year, 5 percent fewer were offered than in 2006 (217 this year, 229 in 2006). Yet again, there was a big drop in the clearance rate from 80 percent last year—when 183 yearlings grossed 5,533,500gns- to 66 percent Monday when just 143 yearlings sold, grossing 4,086,300 down 26 percent from 2006.

This illustrates what happens when there are contractions in the horse market. It’s not that the top horses are getting cheaper (yet)—no, not at all. What happens first is that the bar (the standard of individual for which the buyers are prepared to pay top dollar) gets higher as there are more to choose from—especially because so many are by top sires now. Plus, as we’re seeing there is no demand for the bottom 20 percent.

As we saw last week, that was even the case at Keeneland—though the far broader marketplace in North America (which produces twice as many foals as Britain, Ireland, and France combined, so there had better be a lot more buyers) either delays or mitigates such dramatic evidence of a downturn as we are now seeing in Europe.


Extract from TDN 28.11.07

Galileo Gala at Goffs

Galileo (virtualformguide)Galileo (Ire) was a champion on the racetrack and is now one of Europe’s best young sires, can do no wrong, and Coolmore’s heir apparent to Sadler’s Wells was firmly in the spotlight again during yesterday’s final foal session of the Goffs November Sale. Hip 1248, a half-brother to the 2005 G3 Gallinule S. winner Im Spartacus (GB), created waves when selling to Kennycourt Stud for EUR 280,000 late in the day.

El Gran Senor (biglobe)From the high-class family of El Gran Senor and Try My Best, the April-foaled colt from the draft of the Irish National Stud was the apple of Eugene McDermott’s eye, and the owner of the County Kildare operation was not to be denied. Galileo also provided the joint top-priced filly of the sale when M.V. Magnier paid EUR 240,000 for River Downs Stud’s hip 1154, a half-sister to the group-placed duo of Rabi (Ire) and Kawagino (Ire). “She’s a lovely filly,” Magnier said of the granddaughter of the 1983 G1 Prix Vermeille winner Sharaya. “She’s a really athletic, good-walking sort from a good pedigree and by an exceptional sire. She’ll be kept to race.”

Montjeu (geocites)Another Coolmore heavyweight, Montjeu (Ire), was responsible for the other star filly when Felipe Hinojosa’s Spanish operation Yeguada de Milagro matched that sum for hip 1227, a daughter of the 2005 G3 Prix Fille de l’Air heroine Antioquia (GB). She is a descendant of the excellent producer Riverqueen (Fr). Galileo’s dominance of the session was completed by BBA Ireland’s purchase of Barnane Stud’s hip 1190, a half-sister to the multiple group winner Tropical Lady (Ire) for EUR 190,000; and Paul Shanahan paying EUR 175,000 for Milltown House Stud’s colt consigned as hip 1064 . Of the former, BBA Ireland’s Eamon Reilly said, “I’ve bought her on behalf of a client to race and then breed from; she will not be coming up for resale. She’s a very good looking filly by a top sire and there was a lot to like about her. The half-sister was a very high-class filly.”

Oratorio (coolmore)Hip 1064’s granddam is the 1986 G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte winner Grecian Urn (Ire), who also produced the Group 1-placed Dark Shell (Ire). The first crop by Oratorio (Ire) (Danehill) was born this year, and Timmy Hyde was a fan of Coolnahay Stud’s hip 1129 , a colt from the immediate family of a trio of smart Italian stakes performers. “He is a really good foal, probably as good a one as you’ll see all week,” Hyde said of his EUR 180,000 purchase. “He’s by an exceptionally tough and wonderful racehorse. We all know what Oratorio did, and he’s getting good-looking stock.”

Henry Beeby (goffsireland)Goffs Chief Executive Henry Beeby said, “Over the last five days we have experienced every emotion possible in bloodstock terms, with some excellent highs and a few lows. Among the highs was the huge demand for commercial foals. The start of the week witnessed the reality of the lower end of the yearling market materialise, and many have felt the effects of overproduction hit home this week.”

GOFFS NOVEMBER FOALS

TOP 4 LOTS

Hip     Sex     Sire                Dam                         Price( EUR)

1248     c     Galileo (Ire)   Captivating (Ire)     280,000

1154     f      Galileo (Ire)   Sharakawa (Ire)      240,000

1227    f      Montjeu (Ire) Antioquia (GB)        240,000

1190    f      Galileo (Ire)    Tropical Lake (Ire) 190,000

By some extraordinary stroke of good fortune our enterprising clients Dr Barry Clements, Rodney Thorpe and Roger Zeeman, brought home a weanling son of Galileo from Australia in July. He goes before the judges on Wednesday as a National Sales entry and he’ll save you the journey to Sydney come April next year, when he’ll be one of the star attractions in the Summerhill draft. Galileo was the rising star in the Coolmore stallion firmament and was tipped with Montjeu as the successor to his astonishingly successful sire, Sadler’s Wells.

Click here to watch Galileo and Fantastic Light fighting it out in the 2001 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond stakes.

Extract from TDN 23/11/07