2010 VODACOM DURBAN JULY BETTING

VODACOM DURBAN JULY (Grade 1)
Greyville, 2200m, Turf
31 July 2010

LATEST BETTING

#	Horse	Current	Opening
4	IRISH FLAME	4/1	7/2
6	BOLD SILVANO	6/1	11/2
10	RIVER JETEZ	65/10	6/1
1	POCKET POWER	8/1	16/1
5	FORT VOGUE	10/1	11/2
9	ANCESTRAL FORE	12/1	14/1
11	ASLAN	14/1	14/1
13	HAPPY VALLEY	14/1	25/1
15	LIZARRE	14/1	20/1
7	ORBISON	14/1	12/1
16	RUSSIAN SAGE	16/1	20/1
17	FLYING TRISTRAM	33/1	16/1
2	RUDRU	50/1	40/1
20	GOAT	60/1	100/1
8	RED RAKE	66/1	50/1
18	SERVICE ACE	66/1	66/1
14	CAPTAIN SCOTT	80/1	100/1
3	FABIANI	80/1	40/1
12	LOVE IS IN THE AIR	80/1	50/1
19	VERTICAL TAKEOFF	80/1	33/1

Figures courtesy of Betting World at 30 July 2010

www.bettingworld.co.za

DURBAN JULY ALMOST A TRUE HANDICAP

Irish Flame
(Photo : Gold Circle) 

DURBAN JULY 2010
“NOT AN EASY PUZZLE TO UNRAVEL”

There has been a lot of talk about the class of this season’s three-year-old crop of colts with many expressing the opinion that they are the best we have seen in a long time.

Jack Milner writes that the three-year-olds have certainly done little wrong with many of the Graded races, especially the handicaps, going the way of the younger set.

Saturday’s Vodacom Durban July over 2200m at Greyville will finally reveal the answer as no fewer than eight three-year-olds will line up for this R3 million race. This year the race is almost a true handicap and as such is not an easy puzzle to unravel.

However, the good news for Pick 6 punters, who will be hoping to win a share in the carryover of R423,993 and an estimated pool of R5 million, is that Mike de Kock saddles seven runners and Mike Bass four. So for just two horses, one will get 11 of the 20 runners, most of whom are high up in the betting.

When Eyeofthetiger won this race in 2006, he carried 54kg - the heaviest weight carried to victory by any three-year-old. This year all of Irish Flame, Bold Silvano, Orbison, Ancestral Fore and Happy Valley will have between 54kg and 56kg on their backs and with the top weight still set at 60kg, some pundits believe it will be beyond them.

I disagree and believe the three-year-olds will dominate this race - and no horse has performed better during this KwaZulu-Natal season than Irish Flame.

He joined Mike de Kock’s yard after the Cape season. After running third to Pierre Jourdan in the SA Classic (Gr1) and finishing unplaced to Regal Ransom in a Pinnacle Stakes over 1600m, he went on to win the SA Derby (Gr1) in heavy going at Turffontein, the Daily News 2000 (Gr1) at Greyville and the Gold Circle Derby (Gr2) at Clairwood.

In reality he has only raced in three-year-old company and has not really been exposed to older horses. That is of little concern to De Kock. “Horses like Bold Silvano and Happy Valley have raced in open company which brings the collateral form into play. Both have beaten the older horses and Irish Flame has beaten both of them.”

The son of 2003 champion Dynasty won the SA Derby by 9.50 lengths but took the Daily News 2000 by a neck from Bold Silvano, who is now 0.5kg better off.

“I thought the Daily News win was far more impressive than the Derby win,” said De Kock. “I thought 2000m at Greyville would be too sharp but he jumped out, was up with the pace and quickened away at the top of the straight. Bold Silvano ran at him at 100 miles per hour and in fact never looked able to pass him.”

“He doesn’t show you at home what he brings to the track and this is an extra 200m will be right up his alley.”

The Daily News run does bring Bold Silvano very close to Irish Flame, but he must be slightly suspect over the 2200m. “Bold Silvano is very comfortable up to 10 furlongs (2000m). He’s a classic World Cup horse and that is why I’m taking him to Dubai,” said De Kock.

He also pointed out that jockey Anthony Delpech will not get too far behind this time. “We’ve been riding him from behind because that’s the way he won the Betting World 1900 at Greyville. We’re not going to give his No 2 draw away and he’s going to be closer to the front. He’s got to be ridden confidently.”

The pace has also been discussed and many experts predict that De Kock will be looking for a fast pace. However, that does not appear to be the case. “A fast pace will suit Irish Flame and Ancestral Fore. A slow pace will suit Bold Silvano. The race must unfold the way it does,” said De Kock.

Mike Bass wants a quick pace for his runners. They include 2008 winner Pocket Power, who dead-heated with Dancer’s Daughter. Pocket Power is stuck at draw No 17 and a fast-run race will help jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe overcome that hurdle.

“If he was drawn well I would be very confident, he would have a big shout. But if he turns for home four of five lengths back, I will still quite confident,” said Bass.

“Pocket Power can quicken with anybody. It just depends on the pace. If there’s a good pace I have no concern about him quickening. Last year it was slow, he didn’t get out that well and he was stuck at the back of the field. Hopefully this year the pace will be decent.”

Although he will be turning eight the day after the Durban July, Pocket Power is a champion and it would be foolhardy to write him off. “It’s just a matter of his state of fitness as the season goes on,” explained Bass. “I don’t hammer him at the beginning of the season and he builds himself up. This year I thought his third run would be his best run but hopefully it will be his fourth.”

Bass has two another weapons in his arsenal in the form of J&B Met winner River Jetez and fourth-placed Fort Vogue while De Kock also saddles Gold Cup winner Ancestral Fore, the much-improved Happy Valley and Lizarre, all of whom have claims to wear the winner’s sash. 

But it could be Herman Brown’s three-year-old Orbison who fills the minor placing. He won the Champions Cup (Gr1) over 1800m at Clairwood, beating many of the rivals he meets in this race. If taken in isolation that run would make him very hard to beat, but the conditions suited Orbison on that occasion and his task may not be so easy this time.

However, the Mogok gelding has a magnificent turn of foot and can run with them or come from off them, all of which will make life easier for jockey Raymond Danielson to overcome No 16 draw.

Extract from Racing Express

DURBAN JULY 2010 : TITANIC IS NOT THE WORD

River Jetez
(Photo : Gold Circle)

VODACOM DURBAN JULY
Greyville, South Africa

The epic moments in adversarial competition have oftentimes been labelled with descriptions like “gladiatorial”, “titanic” or “battles of the giants”. But frankly, when you consider what we have in store on Saturday at the Vodacom Durban July, you find yourself questioning the adequacy of these phrases. The man the world has come to regard as one of its best, if not the best, trainer, Mike de Kock, has no fewer than seven (or 35%) of the field of 20 engaged, while the other Mike, Bass, goes to war with four. Between them, they command more than half the entries for the greatest horseracing event on the African continent, one which rivals any other outside of the Football World Cup, for the title of the continent’s most famous sporting show, period.

Yet despite the hands of these two men, (and the battle is likely to be resolved between them,) in their charges themselves, there is a distinctly open look to them. There was a time earlier in the year when Mike de Kock told us that he didn’t think this was a vintage crop of three year old colts, but hindsight tells us he might’ve been premature in his judgement. You see, he may even be human after all.

Considering the likes of Pierre Jourdan, Noordhoek Flyer, Bravura, Havasha and Galileo’s Galaxy have been sidelined for one reason or another, we still have the ilk of Irish Flame, Ancestral Fore, Bold Silvano, Happy Valley etc engaged, so we’re probably looking at as deep a generation of three year old colts as we’ve known in several decades.

That said, their task is not an easy one, as the burden of weight has crept up among three year olds in recent years, to the degree that what they’re carrying these days, is barely recognisable from the postage stamp Bush Telegraph was asked to manage when he took the July two decades ago, on his way to his 9^th consecutive victory.

Of course, these things are all relative, and it may well be that the three year olds have the advantage these days, of racing against the depleted ranks of our older horses. South Africa’s outstanding success, pioneered largely by Mr de Kock, in international climes, has brought about the regular plunder of our older horse ranks, such is the money on offer for these horses or the lure of the prizes which ring in hard currency.

The outcome though, is not altogether forlorn. We still have engaged in this race a three-time Horse Of The Year in Pocket Power, his own sister (our personal choice) River Jetez, heroine of this year’s J&B Met and arguably one of the best treated at the weights for the July, as well as several of the class of Fort Vogue, who come in with a “squeak”.

As for choice, you could probably throw a blanket over six or seven horses with decent chances, and be lucky for having picked the right one. There are students of form who will have devoted several months to this task, yet some of them will still be disappointed at the result. This really is a year for people operating beyond the parameters of the “expert”. As long as you remember there is a limit to those with realistic expectations, closing your eyes and putting your finger on any one of those that fall within this group, could yield a bonanza.

MIKE DE KOCK ON 2010 DURBAN JULY FORM

River Jetez - J&B Met 2010
(Photo : Gold Circle)

VODACOM DURBAN JULY
Greyville, 31 July 2010

David Thiselton Gold CircleVodacom Durban July pundits around the country will be asking during the next two weeks “where is that German octopus when we need him” and the man with seven horses in this year’s race, Mike de Kock, agreed that the form leading into the big race also has him “stumped”.

Mike de Kock began by saying that he was happy with his horses’ draws. “We’ve got the whole field covered although the 19 and 20 draws have been reserved for me as usual.” Talking of the pace he said, “They tell me Red Rake likes to stride along, but I’m not sure that suits him best. We might actually want it slower for some of our horses, but we will discuss tactics closer to the time.”

He confirmed that all seven of his horses were doing very well before adding, “I have no real fancies among them. The weights might have swung aganst some of the three-year-olds, but have swung into Lizarre’s favour. If you look at his last race in the Pinnacle Plate he went close despite the slow pace, so it was a very good run. Now he has a pull in the weights with the older horses there (although he doesn’t have a pull with the three-year-old winner Flying Tristram). He also has a pull in the weights with Irish Flame and Bold Silvano from the Daily News 2000. He has an obvious chance, but then he is drawn 20.”

“Bold Silvano and Irish Flame are both very, very well. There are two schools of thought regarding the three-year-olds these days. Firstly history would say they have a lot to do at the weights. But secondly a lot of the best older horses have left the country, which could be why the three-year-olds have been dominant. The race this year is also at the end of the month which gives the three-year-olds a weight-for-age advantage. The three-year-olds have campaigned much more against the older horses this year due to the race being at the end of July. But I can’t really make my mind up about them.”

“The form is so topsy turvy. Bold Silvano beat Aslan in the Greyville 1900, but Aslan’s subsequent form hasn’t seen that form stand up. Orbison was well beaten in Jo’burg, but then comes and runs the race of his life in the Champions Cup.”

“But in that race two horses that turned for home in the first three were first and second and the second horse, Galileo’s Galaxy, was previously well beaten in a Pinnacle Plate and only just scraped home in a Graduation Plate against Directorate. But then again Flying Tristram’s form when beating Orbison in the Cup Trial stood up as he then won the Pinnacle Plate against Fort Vogue, Rudra, Lizarre and Aslan. The form is so upside down it has me stumped, but it is the three-year-olds that have thrown it like that by beating older horses.”

De Kock’s views on the three-year-olds have particular meaning this year as five of his seven runners - Irish Flame, Bold Silvano, Lizarre, Happy Valley and Ancestral Fore - are three, with his couple of older horses, Red Rake and Rudra, both being five.

De Kock said of the dangers from other yards, “The one horse that sticks out like a sore thumb to me is River Jetez. Whatever beats her will win. She is the one horse the handicapper has not been able to get his paws on to.” Regarding whether he reckoned River Jetez would stay a true 2200m or not, he said, “In 2008 she hit the front too soon and is an older stronger filly today.”

He did not see the Jeff Lloyd July jinx as a factor in River Jetez’s chances, “Muis Roberts had a July jinx but that didn’t stop him pipping me in 1997!” The Roberts-ridden Super Quality beat Golden Hoard by 0,75 lengths in that race and also ended something of a July jinx for the Ferraris family.

De Kock also mentioned Pocket Power, saying that although he was virtually eight-years-old he was yet to run a bad race.

2010 DURBAN JULY WEIGHTS ANNOUNCED

Pocket Power - “His Exploits are Legendary”
(Photo - Gold Circle) 

VODACOM DURBAN JULY
31 July 2010

Pocket Power has been allocated top weight of 60kg for “Africa’s Greatest Horserace”, the Vodacom Durban July, to be staged this year on 31 July at Greyville Racecourse.

Nicci Garner writes that Pocket Power’s rating has come down three points in the last month positioning South Africa’s ruling champion with a seemingly open run at an event he has already contested three times notching up a win, a fourth and a fifth placing.

The weights for the country’s premier event were announced yesterday and there were few surprises, although trainer Mike de Kock, who has won the race twice before - with Ipi Tombe in 2002 and Greys Inn in 2004 - will not be too thrilled with the 56kg his ruling favourite Irish Flame has been allotted.

Three-year-olds may have managed to win 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Grade 1 race, but none have succeeded in winning under weights in excess of 53kg. Even taking into account the across-the-board 2kg raise, Irish Flame will need to be exceptional to win under that impost.

Irish Flame will be piloted by Kevin Shea, who has now won the SA Derby and Gold Circle Derby as well as the Daily News 2000 on the son of Dynasty. He believes he is on the best horse : “The July is not easy. I’ve got a good ride and I think I’m on the best three-year-old at the moment.”

“I think my stable companions are the horses to beat. I respect horses like Pocket Power and River Jetez but I think our stable is going to have a very strong hand in the July - and if they’re all well on the day, I think they’re going to fight it out,” said Shea earlier this week.

Mike de Kock’s other big hopes in the Durban July are Greyville 1900 winner Bold Silvano (55.5kg), Gold Cup winner Ancestral Fore (55kg), Happy Valley (54kg) and new recruit Lizarre (53.5kg).

All four of them, as well as Rudra who will receive just 0.5kg from Pocket Power, are nearly guaranteed runs in the race and De Kock said on his website earlier this week : “The handicappers have not been lenient on the three-year-olds. They’re lumping the weight on them as if they don’t want them to win.” He also admitted that they had been on the boil for a long time. “But these horses are fit. They have to go out there and the best horse on the day will win.”

Herman Brown’s progressive and highly regarded Orbison galloped into the July picture last Saturday with his impressive win in the Champions Cup when Galileo’s Galaxy (who will be 2.5kg better off if he runs in the July and has attracted big money subsequently) finished second with Pocket Power (1.5kg better off) third and De Kock’s Bold Silvano (1.5kg better off) 3.75 lengths back in fourth. On the bare evidence, Orbison must be fancied to beat his conquests again.

Herman Brown, who will be taking Orbison to Dubai for the 2011 Dubai International Racing Carnival, said yesterday: “He’s a good horse and the way he won last Saturday was promising. He did it with some authority. Plus, he’s still improving. I believe he’ll be better at four and five than he is at three because he’s a tall, leggy horse who hasn’t developed his full strength yet.”

“But the Durban July under 55.5kg? The three-year-olds have become the heavy-weights in this race. It wasn’t long ago that the three-year-olds got 50 and 51kg - and maybe the handicappers are going overboard.”

“The three-year-olds are a decent bunch, though, and seem to be doing quite well,” he continued before suggesting a lack of depth in the older generations was the reason the three-year-olds looked so good.

Brown continued : “As it stands, the draw will be very important. If Orbison can draw in the first five or six it’ll make all the difference. Then I’ll say he’s one of three horses with a big chance in the July.”

Pocket Power’s stable companion Fort Vogue is currently the second favourite for the big race. The four-year-old will meet Irish Flame at level weights, while the Bass champion’s full-sister to Pocket Power, River Jetez, who has also been well backed in ante-post betting, is set to carry 1kg less.

Sean Tarry’s Summer Cup winner, Aslan, who was only pipped by Bold Silvano in the Greyville 1900 (often considered a good pointer to the July), has also attracted a good deal of money and, with 54.5kg. His supporters will be thrilled with their investment.

Important dates to note :

8 July 2010 : First Declaration
15 July 2010 : Final Field to be announced on Tellytrack
22 July 2010 : Public Gallops at Greyville Racecourse
31 July 2010 : Vodacom Durban July at Greyville Racecourse

VODACOM DURBAN JULY WEIGHTS

Horse	Age	Kg	MR	Trainer
POCKET POWER	7 G	60.0	117	Mike Bass
RUDRA	5 H	59.5	116	Mike de Kock
FABIANI	4 G	56.5	110	Glen Kotzen
IRISH FLAME	3 C	56.0	113	Mike de Kock
FORT VOGUE	4 G	56.0	109	Mike Bass
BOLD SILVANO	3 C	55.5	112	Mike de Kock
ORBISON	3 G	55.5	112	Herman Brown
RED RAKE	5 G	55.5	108	Michael De Beer
ANCESTRAL FORE	3 G	55.0	111	Mike de Kock
RIVER JETEZ	6 M	55.0	107	Mike Bass
ASLAN	4 G	54.5	106	Sean Tarry
FOREST PATH	4 G	54.5	106	Stephen Page
LOVE IS IN THE AIR	4 F	54.5	106	Mike Bass
HAPPY VALLEY (ARG)	3 G	54.0	109	Mike de Kock
CAPTAIN SCOTT	4 G	54.0	105	Alec Laird
LIZARRE	3 C	53.5	108	Mike de Kock
GRAFTON STREET	8 G	53.5	104	Mike Stewart
RUSSIAN SAGE	5 H	53.5	104	Justin Snaith
BULSARA	3 G	53.0	106	Gavin van Zyl
ECHOHAWK	3 G	53.0	106	Dominic Zaki
GALILEO’S GALAXY (AUS)	3 C	53.0	106	Charles Laird
TALES OF BRAVERY	3 G	53.0	106	Vaughan Marshall
AL’S DEPUTY	3 G	53.0	105	Kumaran Naidoo
FLYING TRISTRAM	3 G	53.0	105	Charles Laird
EXHILIRATION	3 C	53.0	104	Dominic Zaki
SERVICE ACE	3 G	53.0	104	Mike Bass
STRAIGHT FORWARD	3 G	53.0	102	Mike de Kock
VERTICAL TAKEOFF	4 G	53.0	101	Sean Tarry
GALANTHUS	3C	53.0	100	Tyrone Zackey
KILLARIDGE (ZIM)	5 G	53.0	100	Weiho Marwing
NOBLEWOOD	5G	53.0	100	Stephen Page
STRATEGIC NEWS (AUS)	6 H	53.0	100	Herman Brown
WINTER’S NIGHT	3 G	53.0	100	Neil Bruss
DELLOTTO	3 C	53.0	99	Kumaran Naidoo
SPEED FOR GOLD	5 G	53.0	99	Dennis Drier
BOUQUET-GARNI	4 G	53.0	98	Gavin van Zyl
FORT PETERSBERG	3 G	53.0	97	Dominic Zaki
KING FERNANDO	3 G	53.0	96	Doug Campbell
SUPERFEDERATION	4 G	53.0	94	Gary Alexander
CALL TO COMBAT	4 C	53.0	91	St John Gray
SALUKI (GB)	4 G	53.0	91	Michael de Beer
WITTENBERG	3 C	53.0	90	Gavin van Zyl
CITIZEN DANTE (AUS)	5 G	53.0	87	Glen Kotzen
ROYAL ROCKER (AUS)	3 G	53.0	82	Tony Rivalland
TOP MARK (BRZ)	3 C	53.0	0	Mike de Kock
HERE TO WIN (BRZ)	3 F	52.0	102	Mike de Kock
GOAT	4 F	52.0	101	Paul Lafferty
IMPERIOUS STAR	3 F	52.0	99	Glen Kotzen
SANGRIA GIRL	5 M	52.0	98	Greg Ennion
FLIRTATION	3 F	52.0	97	Mike de Kock
EQUIPARADA (ARG)	3 F	52.0	94	Mike de Kock

Gold Circle 6 July 2010