STALLIONS : STATS AND FACTS

John Messara
(Photo : Racing NSW)

“Data comes in all sorts of forms,
and because there’s new history being made every day in racing,
it’s constantly evolving.”

Time was when stud masters judged stallions on intuition, and breeders mated their mares on a cocktail of gut feel, dosages, and the assignment of numbers to female families, cosmology, rattlesnakes and a potion of magic elixirs. Quite amazingly, and despite the mountain of scientific data and the genetic advancements science had made, racehorse producers have long displayed a preference for the myths and urban legends this mystical beast has generated over centuries, in deciding where to send their mares.

It’s a comparatively recent development (successfully exploited by Australia’s John Messara, a man who unsurprisingly came from a financial and stockbroking background,) that analytics first made its appearance in our world. In Messara’s case, you need only look at the history of his Arrowfield Stud, to know that it works. He was the man behind Danehill and his three champion sire sons, Redoute’s Choice, Flying Spur and Danzero, and let’s not forget, he also bred Zabeel, who alongside his sire Sir Tristram, is without peer among the greatest stallions New Zealand has known.

At Summerhill, we rely on a whole lot of inputs in arriving at our mating strategies. We look at the broodmare and her history in an attempt to assess the character she produces, we consult with trainers, jockeys and our own staff to get their impressions of the family and/or the sires’ progeny. We have the marvellous advantage of working with the offspring of both parents in our Ready To Run Programme, and that teaches you a host of things about their constitutions, their minds, how they move and how quickly they learn. We employ our intuitions, directed at soundness, temperament and the likely physical outcome in a mating of specimens. And then, like Messara, we consult data, reams of it.

Data comes in all sorts of forms, and because there’s new history being made every day in racing, it’s constantly evolving. So it doesn’t matter that it’s the end of the breeding season, these things are of interest 24/7, and when they’re of value, you can be sure this team’s alert to them. Just recently, Broodmare Manager, Annet Becker updated our stats on some of the more established stallions in the land, and this is what they look like:

South African Stallions Lifetime Stats

*Up to and including foals born in 2009.

There are a couple of interesting numbers emerging from the update. Clearly, there is a soundness correlation among those sires that generate the most runners from foals and their percentage winners. Significantly, Kahal and National Emblem, who produced the bulk of their runners whilst at Summerhill, are rivalled only by Western Winter in their percentage of horses which get to the track. That might have something to with environment and management, as it is borne out by a broader set of figures covering the progeny of all sires at Summerhill. Western Winter, Fort Wood, Dynasty and Silvano are by some distance the most consistent getters of Stakes winners (exclude Trippi in this case, because he’s only had the one crop, and while his numbers are astonishing, they need to be repeated over a period of time). You might have thought Jet Master’s percentage Stakes winners would be higher, but quite clearly, his great attribute is his ability to get the very big horse, which he’s done more regularly than any other of his contemporaries.

Our readers are invited to comment on these numbers, and to ask whatever questions you wish. We have the data, and we can present these numbers however you want, so let’s hear from you. Have a great KwaZulu week if you’re in our vicinity - there’s a bit of warmth about at last, and our conception rates have climbed dramatically in the last few weeks.

Enquiries :
Linda Norval +27 (0) 33 263 1081
or email linda@summerhill.co.za
www.summerhill.co.za

A FEW DURBAN JULY STATS...

VODACOM DURBAN JULY (Grade 1)
Greyville, Turf, 2200m
7 July 2012

The Vodacom Durban July is a handicap but Jackson has a 2kg advantage over his rivals because of a condition that states that a three-year-old cannot carry more than 57kg. That makes him hard to beat and many experts will not hear of him getting beaten! For those not amongst them, here are some statistics that might help…

THE BEST DRAW

Barrier draws (a horse’s stall in the starting gate) do play a role in determining the result of the Durban July, but the good news for the many people backing Jackson in this year’s race is that wide draws are not insurmountable.

Six runners drawn on the extreme outside of the field have won since 1917.

The first three were Kipling in 1940 (drawn 22), St Pauls in 1946 (drawn 20) and Beau Art, a big chestnut with four white socks, who overcame draw No 17 in 1980.

In 1991 import Flaming Rock started from No 20 stall and unwound a devastating finish to win by a long head.

Then in 1998 Classic Flag also overcame the outside starting stall and jumped from No 18 draw before going on to score in race and course-record time.

In 2003 favourite Dynasty (Jackson’s sire) broke from No 20 draw and was forced to race wide in the early stages. But he produced a sustained finishing burst to beat Yard-Arm.

No 10 draw has been lucky in recent years with two of the last three winners, ill-fated Big City Life in 2009 and Igugu in 2011 winning from that berth.

THE BEST JOCKEYS

Jockeys Anthony Delpech and Anton Marcus share top honours in the Durban July in recent years, having ridden four winners each.

Delpech, who will partner second favourite Ilha Bela in Saturday’s big race, has previously worn the winner’s sash aboard Classic Flag (1998), Greys Inn (2004), Bold Silvano (2010) and Igugu (2011). Marcus, who will ride Vettel, first won the race on Dancing Duel (1993) and subsequently celebrated with the connections of El Pica (2000, winning the race for the second time running), Dunford, who sprung a surprise in the race in 2005 and Hunting Tower (2007).

THE BEST TRAINERS

Trainer Terrance Millard won the race seven times from 1983 to 1993. In more recent times, Mike de Kock has won the Durban July four times and Mike Bass three times. De Kock has four runners this year, Solo Traveller, Vettel, Gorongosa and Ilha Bela. Bass is three-handed with Castlethorpe, Chesalon and English Garden.

THE BEST AGE

Four-year-olds have an outstanding record in the Vodacom Durban July with horses from that age group having captured the event 42 times.

Three-year-olds have won 32 times, while five-year-olds have 25 victories to their credit.

Three-year-olds have been the most successful age group in more recent years with nearly 60% of their 30 wins having come in the last 20 years. By comparison only 25% of the victories by four-year-olds have been achieved in the last 20 years.

There are seven three-year-olds in this year’s race and nine four-year-olds.

THE BEST WEIGHT

The lightest weight of 38,5kg was carried to victory by Nymagee in 1904 and Margin in 1916. The heaviest weight, 66kg, was carried to victory by Campanajo in 1898.

Since the distance of the race changed to 2200m in 1970 few horses carrying 55kg or more have won, but it must be noted that the bottom weight for handicaps was raised 2kg in 2010, bringing the bottom weight in handicaps up from 50kg to 52kg.

Horses who won carrying 55kg or more since 1970:

• 1978 Politician 57kg
• 1980 Beau Art 55,5kg
• 2000 El Picha 58kg
• 2007 Hunting Tower 55kg
• 2008 Pocket Power 58kg
• 2010 Bold Silvano 55,5kg
• 2011 Igugu 55kg

For more information, please visit :

www.vodacomdurbanjuly.co.za

Extract from Tab News

SADLER'S WELLS HAT TRICK

Montjeu
(Photo : Network 54)

“Was, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot”

Hard on the heels of our announcement last week of the arrival of Sadler’s Wells’ grandson, Golden Sword, the potency of the male line was underlined again on Saturday. But before we go there, we’ve been amazed at the response we’ve had to the story on Golden Sword, obviously echoing the world’s great respect for his six-time Group One-winning sire, High Chaparral, and his achievement in getting six Group One winners in his first year at stud. We doubt there’s been so much excitement around a “Sword” since the reign of King Arthur, when he wrenched Excalibur out of the rock! Fellows in remote places like Dr. Ashley Parker and Highlands’ Mike Sharkey, were even onto the story. Annet Becker and Tarryn Liebenberg, fresh returned from a shopping spree in Australia where High Chaparral’s as “hot” as it gets, were back-slapped incessantly at the news.

Perhaps we should talk about Friday first though, when Galileo’s daughter, Was, trumped a top field in the Investec Oaks (Gr.1) at Epsom Downs, reminding us that the portents for the tribe of Sadler’s Wells at the world’s most famous racecourse, were strong. While Galileo is undoubtedly the best son at stud of Sadler’s Wells (himself the most successful European sire of all time,) it’s equally true that when it comes to rattling up Classic winners, no stallion, not even Sadler’s Wells, can match the rate of his other son, Montjeu, in the production of European Derby and Oaks aces, anywhere.

One of the great traditions on Investec Derby Day is the Coronation Cup (Gr.1), contested by older horses over the Derby course, and this year named for The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee. When last year’s hero, St Nicholas Abbey, trotted up by 4,5 lengths on Saturday, we should’ve known what lay in store when it came to the Derby itself.

And so it proved, with Camelot maintaining his perfect record under murderous acceleration to gallop away by a growing 5 lengths. It seems his connections will be unable to resist the temptation of contesting the Triple Crown, despite the negative implications which accrue against a stallion prospect that’s stayed the 14½ furlongs of the St Leger. This is something no horse has come close to achieving since Nijinsky, Britain’s last Triple Crown hero in 1970, and it didn’t do his stud prospects any harm either, though it has to be said that “chivalry” was still a decent word in those days.

For those who believe in the spiritual world, you might say there’s less of a coincidence in the announcement by us of Golden Sword’s arrival at Summerhill and Camelot, King Arthur’s fabled stronghold, than at first meets the eye. Could this be the start of a new legend? Certainly, the handicappers believe so, as they rated this Derby performance on a par with Sea The Stars’ in 2009.

Back to earth now, and Jackson’s smashing victory in the Daily News 2000 (Gr.1) at Greyville on Saturday. That he is the best middle distance three-year-old in the land is indisputable, and it seems the only thing that can stop him now in the Vodacom Durban July, is his merit rating and the weight they’ll be put on his shoulders in handicap conditions. It’s likely he’ll have to carry as big a burden as any three-year-old has ever done in Africa’s greatest horse race. It’s a matter now, of just how good he is.

South Africa is blessed to have two world-class sophomore colts this year, Variety Club at a mile and Jackson at a trip, and we must surely all be clapping hands at the prospect that these two exceptional animals will one day get their chance to show the world just how good our horses are.

For the record, Jackson is another of the Sadler’s Wells crew, being a son of the highly-promising Dynasty, himself a champion and a grandson of the great European sire. Saturday 2^nd June 2012, a timely reminder of just how valuable the old man’s genes are, and when they’re transmitted, potent their influence is.

Editor’s note: That Camelot’s performance was rated on a par with Sea The Stars’, puts Golden Sword’s Derby performance (just 2 lengths off Sea The Stars) into perspective. In Camelot’s field (and without the victor,) Golden Sword was a Derby winner by 3 lengths!

We would be failing in our duty if we did not mention the exceptional effort in the Daily News 2000 of Shogunnar, who was denied second place by a half length by the substantially more experienced Vettel. Shogunnar is a son of the Royal Whip Stakes (Gr.2) hero, Solskjaer (by Danehill), and went into the race with just three starts under his belt. He joins Ice Axe as another standout colt for his 120 Timeform-rated sire. While he’ll pick up a hefty penalty for his Group One place, Shogunnar looks an outstanding prospect for the Gold Circle Derby later this month. His mother, Surfer’s Eye, was acquired by Judge Alan Magid a couple of years back, and as one of our most regular blog correspondents, the Judge will be tickled at the outcome. Rejoice, Judge, there are several hundred others at Summerhill who share your pleasure.

Enquiries :
Linda Norval 27 (0) 33 263 1081
or email linda@summerhill.co.za
www.summerhill.co.za

JACKSON STRIKES IN DAILY NEWS 2000

Click above to watch Jackson winning the Daily News 2000…
(Image : Gold Circle - Footage : Tellytrack)

DAILY NEWS 2000 (Grade 1)
Greyville, Night, Turf, 2000m
2 June 2012

David Thiselton
Gold CircleJackson (SAF) justified his short odds at Greyville Saturday when powering clear to win the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 in emphatic fashion under jockey Karis Teetan and he stamped his Vodacom Durban July credentials in the process.

The Brett Crawford-trained Dynasty colt has only had seven career starts but has now won five races in all including two Grade 1’s. Jackson has been the ruling July favourite since the betting opened and the bookmakers shortened him into 16-10 after Saturday’s race.

Jackson started the Daily News 2000 at cramped odds of 1-3, not surprisingly considering he was merit rated eight points higher than any other horse in the field. He jumped well from his number two draw to get the rail and was soon tracking the pacemaker, the Mike de Kock-trained Vettel. Karis Teetan switched Jackson out in the straight and he had soon drawn along side Vettel before kicking again at the 200m mark to draw clear and win comfortably. The Sean Tarry-trained Whiteline Fever had run on well from the back, moving into second place at one stage, but Vettel fought back well to be second at the line, while the Gavin van Zyl-trained Shogunnar ran on strongly to pip Whiteline Fever for third place. Shogunnar had only had three starts before this race and this excellent effort might see him start favourite for his next intended target, the Grade 2 Gold Circle Derby over 2400m at Clairwood on June 24. The Sean Tarry-trained SA Derby dead-heater Pomodoro ran on in eye catching style from the back and this was an excellent July preparation outing.

Jockey Teetan praised Crawford for having Jackson “spot on” for the race and the bay colt certainly impressed in the pre-race parade. Teetan added that Jackson had quickened very well in the straight.

Jackson is going to be a hard horse to beat in the July, especially considering the July second favourite Ilha Bela was unable to win the Woolavington, the previous race, although Pomodoro could be a threat as he will be receiving weight from Jackson in the July.

Extract from Gold Circle

THE IMPORTANCE OF BROODMARE SIRES

Northern Guest
(Photo : Summerhill Stud)

“How important is the Broodmare Sire?”

SARAH WHITELAW - When first looking at a pedigree, particularly in a catalogue, I first look at the sire, then I look at the dam, and then I look at the female line, or at least the first two dams.

But how important is the broodmare sire? When looking at such modern day champions as Horse Chestnut and Dynasty (out of mares by Col Pickering and Commodore Blake respectively), it is easy to believe that the broodmare sire pays little part in the pedigree, as both the aforementioned horses are out of mares by failed stallions.

There were 25 winners of 32 G1 races run last year in South Africa. Of these 25 horses, eight were produced by daughters of champion sires. Genetically speaking, the broodmare sire will contribute 25% to the DNA makeup of the individual horse.

It is hard to see this when looking at a horse like the mighty Smarty Jones - by a good sire in Elusive Quality out of a 12 times stakes winner. Smarty Jones’s broodmare sire Smile was a disaster at stud - and it is hard to see quite what part he plays in the pedigree of one of the finest racehorses of the 21st century.

It is also surely more than a coincidence that often a champion racehorse, but poor sire, who covers good books of mares when first retiring to stud, can produce at least one G1 producing daughter. One such example is the mighty Dancing Brave, a stallion who was largely a disappointment, but whose daughters have done very well at stud.

Ironically enough, a horse to fall in the same category as Dancing Brave, is his old rival Shahrastani (who beat Dancing Brave somewhat fortuitously in the 1986 Epsom Derby). Shahrastani, who has spent his stud career in all of the USA, Japan and Ireland, was a very poor sire, but his daughters have produced such G1 winners as Alamshar (Irish Derby) and Caradak (Prix de la Foret).

It is also worth noting that sometimes ordinary stallions can leave their mark on the breed through their daughters. One of history’s greatest ever stallions, Danzig, is out of a mare by Admirals Voyage (himself a son of champion handicap male, Crafty Admiral). The latter sired just a handful of minor stakes winners during his time at stud - none of which won at the highest level. But through the deeds of Danzig and his legions of successful sons and daughters, Admirals Voyage’s name will survive in the modern day pedigree - outlasting sires who enjoyed more stud success!

Another ordinary sire whose name lingers in the modern day thoroughbred through a daughter is the Promised Land stallion, Understanding. Winner of the G3 Stuyvesant Handicap, Understanding sired just two stakes winners in a brief stud career - but one of those stakes winners was Wishing Well. She not only won the Gamely Handicap (today a G1 race), but at stud she produced US Horse of the Year and legendary Japanese sire, Sunday Silence.

Poker was a son of the top-class sire and broodmare sire Round Table. While he himself was an ordinary sire (his only champions coming in Norway and Puerto Rico), Poker’s daughters produced numerous champions including champion sire Seattle Slew. The latter twice topped the US broodmare sires list, and his daughters have produced a host of champions. Poker is also the maternal grandsire of US champion, Silver Charm, as well as the useful sire, Lomond (himself a champion sire in Italy). Through Seattle Slew alone, Poker is guaranteed to be around in pedigrees for decades.

In contrast, history has produced a number of truly exceptional broodmare sires. In North America, arguably the greatest broodmare sire of all was Sir Gallahad III. Sir Gallahad III led the US broodmare sires list on 12 occasions - and his daughters produced over 130 stakes winners (in an era where stallions covered 30 mares a season). Sir Gallahad III’s daughters produced champions Challedon and Gallorette as well as high-class stakes winners such as Mars Shield (Kentucky Oaks), Boswell (St Leger), Galatea (Epsom Oaks), Black Tarquin (St Leger), Aurelius (St Leger) and Nothirdchance (Acorn Stakes, dam of Hail To Reason).

Another truly phenomenal broodmare sire was Princequillo. A stout stayer, he dominated the US Broodmare Sires list in the 1960’s and 1970’s. He not only headed the list on eight occasions, but remarkably enough, his son Prince John and grandson Speak John (by Prince John) also became champion broodmare sires. Princequillo is best known as the broodmare sire of the US Triple Crown winner Secretariat (also a great broodmare sire), with his daughters also producing such luminaries as champion Mill Reef, leading sire and broodmare sire Kris S, G1 winners Squander and Sham, champion half brothers Fort Marcy and Key To The Mint, as well as champions Bold Lad and Successor.

In South Africa, the trend in recent times has been for champion sires to become champion broodmare sires. The broodmare sires list has recently been dominated by Northern Guest, who has been champion broodmare sire in this country nine times. He is certainly bred to be a champion broodmare sire with both his sire, Northern Dancer, and broodmare sire, Buckpasser, having topped the broodmare sires list on more than one occasion.

So how relevant is the broodmare sire? Clearly it helps to have a successful sire/broodmare sire as a maternal grandsire of a horse, but it is also clear that it is not the sole defining success factor.

Extract from www.sportingpost.co.za