THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE

Visionaire (USA)
(Photo : Greig Muir)

“If you’re not part of the process itself,
you’re going to be left behind.”

Mick Goss
(Summerhill CEO)There are not too many of us left who remember the Great Depression of the late 20s and early 30s, so the financial turmoil the world has landed itself in the last five years is, for most people, a unique phenomenon. In business talk, not so long ago we used to plan in 3-5 year cycles; these days, the rate of change is such that if you’re not part of the process itself, you’re going to be left behind.

It’s understandable in times like these, that horsemen should bet on the tried and tested. Which means that when it comes to stallions and their progeny, buyers look with greater comfort at the stock of the proven sire, rather than those of the up-and-coming.

At the same time, it’s a fact that all of Northern Guest, Foveros, Western Winter, Fort Wood and Jet Master, had first crops, and those with the enterprise to follow their intuitions, were the ones that cashed in. By the very nature of things, renewal is part of the process by which the world works, and whatever the state of the nation’s stallion play, we need to remind ourselves that there’s always a new generation waiting in the wings. Those that rely more on memory than on vision, are driving in the rear view mirror.

It’s been our observation over more than three decades in the horse business, that in good economic times, players are more inclined towards adventure; they’re more likely to gamble on unfamiliar territory than when austerity is the watchword. It’s our guess that we’re in the in-between faze right now, where financial indicators are telling us that the planet is slowly getting back on its feet, and for those who are in the breeding business, this may be a signal to revise our strategies.

Talking of vision, just yesterday, our new signing, Visionaire, delivered up his first runner and at the same time his first winner, the filly She Is Tango, by a scorching five lengths. And if the odd reports we’re getting from elsewhere in the United States of others from his first small crop are anything to go by, it seems we may be in for a bit of cooking.

None of us should be surprised though. Visionaire was one of the very best winners in recent years of America’s premier stallion-maker, the King’s Bishop Stakes (G1) at historic Saratoga, his last-to-first destruction of the fastest 3-year-olds of his year, stamping him a generation leader. Among America’s contemporary stallion luminaries, are the names of Distorted Humor, More Than Ready and Hard Spun, all of whom distinguished themselves in the King’s Bishop, and if they haven’t already claimed a championship, they’re bang in line for one.

So, if you’re still of a conservative disposition and believe the tried-and-tested route is your preference, Visionaire’s just given you the “heads-up” for a hell of a lot less than you’d have to pay for those of the older generation.

Enquiries :
Linda Norval +27 (0) 33 263 1081
or email linda@summerhill.co.za
www.summerhill.co.za

THE NAMES YOU KNOW

Giant’s Causeway (USA)
(Photo : The Stallion Barn)

Among the most significant innovations
we’ve seen from Bill in the past 30 years,
is a system for the rating of stallions called “Apex”

There’s no doubt about it. Bill Oppenheim is the longest surviving sales and stallion analyst in thoroughbred history; he survives principally because he’s the greatest researcher known to man, and secondly, because he articulates his views with such style.

Among the most significant innovations we’ve seen from Bill in the past 30 years, is a system for the rating of stallions called “Apex”, which is a refinement of the previous best method of assessing a stallion’s worth, the Average Earnings Index (AEI). The difference between the Apex system and AEI, is basically that Apex rates the number of high quality horses a stallion produces year-by-year (as well as over the duration of his lifetime at stud), while the AEI simply reflects gross earnings divided by the number of racing progeny, and is therefore liable to distortion by one or two big earners which can skew the figures for any particular stallion.

What’s more, Bill’s system has grown “legs” because it has several additional dimensions to it. Not only does it establish a means of comparing stallions across generations, but it is a potent indicator of the here-and-now performance of a stallion at any given time, as well as a useful tool in identifying up-and-coming young stallions.

For the purposes of this piece, very briefly, Bill divides his statistics into what he calls “A runners” (the top 2% of the breed), “B runners” (the next 2%), and “C runners” (the next 4%), and then he has an index called “ABC runners”, which include the top 8%. Obviously, to qualify as an elite stallion, he needs to be represented by a depth of occupants of all three of these spaces. It should be said though, that any table of statistics like Apex, is simply a snapshot of what is happening to this day, given the parameters established for the measurements. The highest correlation between a sire’s status, the market place and the industry, is probably with that horse’s actual stud fee: Apex figures aren’t really designed to identify that, though it’s surprising over the years how accurate the figures have proven in identifying the top sires, and especially in finding the emerging prospects. Our purpose in providing you with an insight into Bill’s recent findings is to point to the standout stallions of the current generation.

There are a few real standout performers (and no secrets here), these are the leading sires: Coolmore’s Galileo is now the leading active North American or European sire, both by A Runner Index (4.02), and by number of 2006-2012 A Runners (120). That’s really strong, to lead in both categories; not sure even Sadler’s Wells ever achieved that. Darley’s Dubawi has arguably surpassed the Juddmonte brothers-in-arms, Dansili and Oasis Dream, for Europe’s number two spot. Though a triple Group 1 winner (National Stakes at two; Irish 2000 Guineas, Prix Jacques le Marois at three) from the only crop by Dubai Millennium, Dubawi didn’t particularly come out at stud with a big reputation. He was Europe’s number two freshman sire of 2009 behind Shamardal, but once they turned three, and from then on, he just keeps siring good horses. He has a 3.36 A Runner Index, 2.15 ABC, with crops on line from much better calibre mares than he started with.

The young American horse who keeps coming up with impressive figures is WinStar’s Speightstown. Not only does he have a very high 3.51 A Runner Index (he’s always had very good APEX ratings), he is also over 2.00 for both B and C Runners, and so has a massive 2.51 ABC Runner Index, over 20% of his year-starters. Very high; and they have speed, a lot of them; besides, his first two crops of 5-year-olds-plus (foals of 2006 and 2007) have an impressive 4.04 index, indicating soundness. Two veteran American sires who have been the most consistent sires of good horses the last few years: Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway and WinStar’s veteran (age 20 this year), Distorted Humor. Giant’s Causeway was an “iron horse” on the racetrack, and he’s proving a sire of iron horses at stud.

His 110 A Runners 2006-2012 is second only to Galileo’s, but some of his other numbers are equally impressive: he”s had 1,922 year-starters - an average of over 270 a year. He’s had a massive 325 ABC Runners, which is still nearly 17% of his year-starters, thus maintaining an ABC Index of 2.11. He’s America’s top sire of quality in quantity. Distorted Humor runs number two to Giant’s Causeway with 297 ABC Runners, and has an even higher ABC Index (2.29). Giant’s Causeway averages more than 45 ABC Runners a year, Distorted Humor over 42; Galileo, who is third in number of ABC Runners (277), averages slightly under 40, and Danehill Dancer (248) in fourth, averages just over 35. In terms of siring durable, sound, money-making horses, Giant’s Causeway and Distorted Humor have proven to be real standouts.

Another phenomenon which the Apex ratings are able to identify, is the aging sires whose figures have begun to tail off, and this is achieved by maintaining a currency of the figures over a period of seven years, with the first of those seven dropping off each year, and being replaced by the current year. It’s a fact of the industry that affects most of the older icons of the business, two more recent examples being Gone West and Green Desert, both of whom were 2.53 A runner sires for most of their careers, but are now returning numbers, in Gone West’s case, of 1.28, and 1.12 for Green Desert.

There is nothing we know of to explain this, not in genetics and not in the physical specimens we see on the ground among their progeny. We all know that older mares can “tail off” in the quality of their progeny, and there’s a logical explanation for this in the wear-and- tear which the womb’s endometrial lining suffers over the years. It’s obviously a relative thing, and applies more in some cases than in others, but there’s nothing in a stallion’s “seeds”, as far as we are aware, to explain the drop-off in his progeny performances. Of course, we all know we’re in the fashion business, and that older stallions may lose some of their commercial lustre (and hence the support of the best mares), but when you consider that the lofty likes of Sadler’s Wells and Mr. Prospector both suffered the same fate, that on its own is not a complete explanation.

We’ve written to Bill to ask him if there’s anything he’s been able to establish through his research that can shed some light on it, and we will let you know what he says.

Editor’s note: One horse who at a relatively young stage in his career, looks to be on his way to becoming a serious sire of sires, is Coolmore’s Giant’s Causeway, who stands at their Ashford Stud division in Kentucky. He doesn’t have that many sons at stud as yet, but already in Shamardal, Footstepsinthesand and First Samurai, there are signs of some real prospects coming through. Another feather in the cap of the Storm Cat lineage.

WHERE HAVE ALL THE STALLIONS GONE?

Top Priced Yearling - Hip 131 Distorted Humor Colt
(Photo : Keeneland)

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLING SALE
10 - 21 September 2012

While many an American breeder will take heart at the results of the recently concluded Keeneland September Sale, there is a stark reality about the numbers. The top stallion (by average), A.P. Indy, is in retirement, and he is at that stage where the commercial appeal of his progeny would ordinarily have been in decline. Yet the dearth of “big” alternative choices is such that A.P. Indy retains pole position, and while he is still such an influence in his own right, that he remains there is as much an indictment on those around him as it is a compliment to his staying power. While the names of Street Cry, Distorted Humor, Unbridled Song, Giant’s Causeway, Tapit and Smart Strike are all worthy of their own respect, they simply don’t have the pizzazz of the generation before.

Cast your minds back to the 70s and 80s and the awed silence which greeted a son of Northern Dancer as he entered the salesring; remember the great stallions contemporaries Mr. Prospector, Nijinsky, Danzig, Alydar, Lyphard, Blushing Groom, Riverman, Vaguely Noble, Raise A Native and Exclusive Native and the lesser likes of Secretariat, Sir Ivor and Caro. These stallions were the legacy of decades of investment by American breeders across the Atlantic, where they plundered the substantial larder of European bloodstock, including most of the top racehorses of the era and any emerging stallion who looked the part. The balance of power shifted to the States in what seemed like an irretrievable monopoly at the time, and studs like Claiborne, Spendthrift and Gainesway presided over a lock on European money for almost three decades. The traffic was one-way, justified by overwhelming dominance and the American conquest of a disproportionate share of the European classics.

It is the story of all empires though, that when you think things are going so well you believe you can take your foot off the juice, and that’s the story of American breeding. Complacency set in, and far from maintaining the levels of investment which had characterised the raids of Bull Hancock, John Gaines, Leslie Combs and others of earlier decades, they tended to sit back somewhat on their laurels.

A buying splurge triggered initially by Coolmore, Robert Sangster and Vincent O’Brien, and ratcheted up to unprecedented levels by the Maktoum family, has witnessed a resurgence in the stocks of Europe’s fire power; epitomised by Galileo, Montjeu, Dubawi, Dansili, Pivotal and Oasis Dream. These are the new colossi of the stallion universe, and you can expect the world and his dog to turn up at the Tattersalls Highflyer in early October, where we’ll see the fireworks for which the Keeneland sales pavilion was once renowned.

The truth is, if America wants to get back to the top of the pile, they will only do so through the strength of their stallions, which means if you want ‘em, go get ‘em!

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLINGS
Overall Top 10 Colts

Hip	Sire	Price (US$)
131	DISTORTED HUMOR	1,650,000
469	BERNARDINI	1,550,000
94	WAR FRONT	1,100,000
956	EMPIRE MAKER	1,050,000
41	STREET CRY	1,000,000
1021	SMART STRIKE	900,000
132	DISTORTED HUMOR	850,000
645	BIG BROWN	825,000
1004	UNBRIDLED’S SONG	800,000
807	GIANT’S CAUSEWAY	750,000

KEENELAND SEPTEMBER YEARLINGS
Overall Top 11 Fillies

Hip	Sire	Price (US$)
45	SMART STRIKE	1,300,000
128	A.P. INDY	1,100,000
124	A.P. INDY	725,000
125	A.P. INDY	675,000
1042	DYNAFORMER	650,000
960	INDIAN CHARLIE	650,000
51	INDIAN CHARLIE	625,000
654	TAPIT	525,000
81	DIVINE PARK	500,000
117	EMPIRE MAKER	500,000
349	TIZNOW	500,000

For further reference, please visit :

www.keeneland.com

THE DECLINE IN QUALITY OF US-BRED THOROUGHBREDS

US Thoroughbred Sales
(Photo : Keeneland)

“FACT OR EXAGGERATION?”

JOCELYN DE MOUBRAY - The decline in the quality of Thoroughbreds bred in the United States has been greatly exaggerated. The U.S. bloodstock industry has declined in many ways since the boom years, which ran from the mid 1970s to the mid 1980s, but there is no obvious reason to believe that American breeders are producing inferior horses today.

On the other hand, it is not all that surprising that so many European bloodstock professionals are convinced that U.S. breds today are inferior to those of the 1970s and 1980s. In the 1980s the progeny of U.S.-based sires were the dominant force in European racing. In 1988, according to The Racing Post’s figures, 50% of all the 3-year-olds rated higher than 110 in Europe were by American sires, by 2001 this figure had fallen to 20% and in 2011 to 10%. This year has been a good one for U.S. breds in Europe and the figure for 2012 3-year-olds was about 14% at the end of July. However, it is easy to see why people have jumped from this evidence to the conclusion that, thanks to medication rules, the racing programme, errors of selection or whatever is their chosen culprit, the quality of U.S. breds has declined dramatically.

The evidence is there, if you look at the results of the major races in England or France during the 1980s around half of all the winners were U.S. breds, but it can be looked at in a different way. First, the distribution of the world’s Thoroughbred population has shifted during the same time period. Throughout the 1980s the U.S. foal crop averaged 46,000 and for three years, from 1985 to 1987, it was over 50,000. This means that during the 1980s, the number of foals born in North America was more than double those born in the major European breeding countries of Ireland, England, France, Germany and Italy. From 1952 to 1986, the U.S. foal crop rose every year bar one, climbing from about 9,000 to 52,000, since there have been two major declines and a slight recovery. From 1986 the foal crop dropped 32% over 10 years to 1995, there was a slight recovery of 10% over the next decade, and then, since 2005, the foal crop has plunged again, falling by nearly 40% to the projected figure for this year of 24,000, which by an accident of statistics is exactly the same as in 1971, more or less the beginning of the great bloodstock boom.

At the time when U.S. breds were dominating European racing there were overall twice as many of them as there were European breds, by 2005 the number of European breds had risen to 80% of the U.S. total, and although there has been a decline in Europe in recent years, it has not been of the same magnitude as in the U.S. and so this year’s crop will be around 90% of the U.S. total.

It could be that U.S. breds are every bit as competitive as they were in the 1980s, there are just many fewer of them and many fewer are sent to race in Europe. The number of U.S. breds exported to Europe has fallen by 40% since 2001 and, although exact figures are hard to come by, it is a fair guess that, of the 2-year-olds going into training in the major European racing countries in 2014, fewer than 10% will be U.S. breds.

The great bloodstock boom is long enough ago for even those who were there to experience it to have forgotten quite how crazy and extreme it was. The U.S. bloodstock boom should be in economic text books alongside the tulip mania of Holland in the mid-17th century. For seven years from 1976, the average price at the Keeneland July Yearling Sale rose by at least 24% every year, and twice in 1978 and 1984 by more than 40%. During this time, the format of what was of course the best yearling sale in the U.S. remained the same with between 300 and 350 yearling sold every year. The average rose from $54,000 in 1975 to $540,000 in 1985. This was a period of high inflation, but for those looking for an inflation proof investment there was at the time nothing better than bloodstock, even in real terms the average rose by more than 400%. To put these figures in their proper perspective, you only have to put them into today’s money. In 2011 dollars, the average price at Keeneland’s July Sale went from $220,000 in 1975 to $1.2 million in 1984. In 1984, Keeneland was able to sell 323 yearlings at an average price the equivalent to $1.2 million in today’s money, and the 165 colts at the sale averaged $1.4 million.

This was a pure speculative boom and had nothing whatsoever to do with any individual stallion who happened to be in Kentucky, or even in Canada, at the time. For those in place with the horses to sell, it must have seemed as if it was raining $100 bills. For a time the major Kentucky studs had so much money they could buy any potential stallion in Europe, or elsewhere if they felt like it, just for fun, or to fill in a quiet afternoon. There was a stampede to join in the fun and the U.S. foal crop doubled during the boom years, while of course stallion fees soared to seven figure sums.

It couldn’t possibly have gone on and the fall was steep with the average price of the 8,000 yearlings offered annually in the U.S. losing half its value between the peak of 1985 and 1992. The Keeneland July Sale limped on to 2002, but by 1992 there were only 183 sold at the sale for an average of $400,000 in today’s money. In many ways this boom was so extreme that the U.S. bloodstock industry has been unbalanced ever since and may only now, some 25 years later, be finding a new equilibrium, which may well turn out to be far closer to what the business looked like in the early 1970s, to what it became during subsequent decades. From 1988 to 2011, the U.S. foal crop declined by 45% and the number of races run in the U.S. fell by 36%. From 1991 to 2011, the number of active Kentucky-based stallions halved from 500 to 250. There was a tentative recovery at the end of the 1990s, but of course, recent events have seen the foal crop fall again sharply from 2008.

These statistics will not convince those who wish to argue about medication, racing programs or selection. There is always a tendency to blame unsoundness on something specific, when in fact it is, on average, one of the characteristics of all Thoroughbreds whether they are by Galileo, Dansili, Distorted Humor, Deep Impact or any other stallion anywhere else in the world. When it comes to stallions, bloodstock people tend to be conservative and stick to what they know or see before their eyes, when it often turns out that if they tried something else it might work just as well if not better. For a long time U.S. breds were seen to be inherently superior, which they weren’t, and today they are seen by many to be inherently inferior, which is in all probability an equally misplaced conclusion.

U.S. racing and breeding present a great opportunity. The most positive figures, particularly for those looking from England or Ireland, are those concerning prizemoney. Since 1988, the average prizemoney per race in the U.S. is up by 29% in real terms. And then horses like Elusive Kate, Aesop’s Fables, Main Sequence, Princess Highway and Reckless Abandon have shown that there are still plenty of U.S. bred or sired horses capable of competing with the best in Europe.

Extract from The Racing Post

THE STALLION MAKER

Click above to watch Visionaire winning the King’s Bishop Stakes (Gr1)
(Image and Footage : Team Valor)

KING’S BISHOP STAKES (Grade 1)
Saratoga, New York, USA

For some years now, we’ve been banging on about the influence of Saratoga’s King’s Bishop Stakes (Gr.1) as a producer of high-class stallions. The debate is appropriate right now, as the big Saratoga meeting has just commenced, and it happens to coincide with the emergence of another rising star on the stallion firmament, Hard Spun, who like the Summerhill sire, Visionaire, is a previous winner of this great race. You may argue that our own awareness of the King’s Bishops’ importance as a “stallion-maker”, was only awakened by the need to “propagandise” Visionaire’s demolition of the 2010 King’s Bishop field, but that would hardly be doing justice to a team, which if nothing else, is diligent in its research. When we first made our observations on the King’s Bishop’s outcomes known, we already knew about More Than Ready and his exploits in the covering shed, Distorted Humor was not yet Champion Sire of America, (though he was on his way there), and Elusive Quality, End Sweep, Ghostzapper and Successful Appeal were all fine living adverts for the belief. In a modern nutshell, the King’s Bishop is far outpointing even the Kentucky Derby (Gr.1) as a provider of top notch stallions at the moment.

Let’s turn to Hard Spun again, and America’s stallion logs. Hard Spun is head and shoulders ahead of his contemporaries with their first three-year-olds at the races, with no fewer than eleven stakes winners already, including a Grade One exacta last weekend. And if you take a peek at the general sires’ log, what do you find? Sitting snugly in third spot behind Empire Maker and Giant’s Causeway, is City Zip, remarkably, another graduate of the King’s Bishop.

The world’s top stallion guru, Bill Oppenheim, penned an excellent article in Wednesday’s Thoroughbred Daily News on the state of play of the Danzig male line (from whence Hard Spun descends), which is an excellent read, as always.

Visit: www.thoroughbreddailynews.com

His observations are worthy of our attention; and this is an especially relevant piece on the re-emergence of Danzig in the States, the impact of the “undeclared war” between Coolmore and the Maktoums, and how that has pretty much split the fate of the line between Danehill and Green Desert in Europe. Go to it!