THE NAMES WE KNOW MARK TWO

Alberto and Renata Stein with the Haras La Leyenda Team
(Photo : Haras La Leyenda)

“We all know that older mares can “tail off” in the quality of their progeny, and there’s a logical explanation for this in the wear-and- tear which the womb’s endometrial lining suffers over the years. It’s obviously a relative thing, and applies more in some cases than in others, but there’s nothing in a stallion’s “seeds”, as far as we are aware, to explain the drop-off in his progeny performances.”

There are some fascinating things happening in the world of research right now, and thanks to geniuses like Bill Oppenheim, racing is getting its fair share as well. In part one of this article (click here to read), we told you we’d get back to you soon with Bill’s response to our question concerning the “tailing off” of aging stallions. This was our problem: “There is nothing we know of to explain this, not in genetics and not in the physical specimens we see on the ground among their progeny. We all know that older mares can “tail off” in the quality of their progeny, and there’s a logical explanation for this in the wear-and- tear which the womb’s endometrial lining suffers over the years. It’s obviously a relative thing, and applies more in some cases than in others, but there’s nothing in a stallion’s “seeds”, as far as we are aware, to explain the drop-off in his progeny performances. Of course, we all know we’re in the fashion business, and that older stallions may lose some of their commercial lustre (and hence the support of the best mares), but when you consider that the lofty likes of Sadler’s Wells and Mr. Prospector both suffered the same fate, that on its own is not a complete explanation.”

Bill Oppenheim is a restless man when it comes to stallions, and his curiosity knows few boundaries, he will keep digging until he strikes the mother load. Right now, he’s busy with another exercise, but in the process his team have come across some interesting spin-offs. His research in conjunction with one of our regular correspondents, the Argentinean breeder, Alberto Stein, (who’s made a big investment in the game at his Haras La Leyenda in recent times,) it seems they’re otherwise discovering some interesting data on the prospects of a stallion’s progeny improving their performance on the back of a lift in the quality of his mares. How often have we seen a stallion’s stats nosedive following an increase in his stud fee and the patronage of what are supposedly better class mares, rather than, as you would expect, a commensurate move in the opposite direction? So they’re not just investigating the phenomenon around the drop-off in performance of older stallions, but they’re looking at the correlation between the point at which a stallion begins to attract higher-rated mares (at higher fees) and the performances of the resultant progeny. Our betting is that there are a surprising number of stallions whose performance either drops off or remains static, against those that actually move up.

Founded many years ago by the Correas family, La Leyenda was home in the halcyon days of the international agricultural boom, to the grand English racehorse, Diamond Jubilee. A dual Classic winning brother to Persimmon, Diamond Jubilee carried the colours of King Edward VII, and was the first of a succession of English Derby heroes imported to Argentina in that era. He was a material contributor to the foundations of the modern South American thoroughbred. Alberto and Renata Stein made their fortune in the family steel business, and made their investment in the farm six years ago.

“Our goal is to combine the best Northern Hemisphere bloodlines and best equine management in the world with Argentina’s centuries old tradition of horsemanship and of raising some of the best horses in the world,” Alberto Stein said.

Dan Rosenberg, the former president of Three Chimneys Farm in Central Kentucky, is a director of the operation and helped secure the Southern Hemisphere stallion duties of the highly successful sires, Exchange Rate, Freud, and 2009 leading North American freshman sire Offlee Wild.

“We wanted to have a world-class operation, with the best management and facilities,” Renata Stein said. “That is why we have Dan Rosenberg in the U.S. and [stallion manager] Ricardo Correas as part of our team.”

“I am more than happy to be involved; I am thrilled to be involved,” Rosenberg said. “In addition to a good working relationship, I have formed a close personal relationship with Alberto, Renata and Ricardo. The project is challenging, exciting, and fun. I love Argentina and the chance to travel and to be involved with so many of the people in the industry I have met there is an added bonus.”

Before moving to La Leyenda, Correas was stud manager of La Mission stallion station in Argentina, having formerly worked at Harris Farms in California, as well as assisting trainer Charlie Whittingham in California.

“Breeding Thoroughbreds is my life - is my place in the world - and I don’t imagine doing any other thing,” Correas said. La Leyenda’s business plan involves two approaches to broodmares: It has acquired its own mares and entered into long-term foal-sharing arrangements involving mares owned by North Americans interested in Argentine racing.

The Steins vision for La Leyenda started to become reality in 2007 when they purchased 622 acres of land in Argentina with plans for a stud farm. They attended a breeding seminar in Lexington and visited farms throughout the Bluegrass before deciding to pursue a “breed-to-race” business model.

“The experience was excellent and really broadened our vision to understand how the industry works in the U.S. with its best practices and standards,” Alberto Stein said. Owners of mares based in North America participate in the La Leyenda program by having their mare covered by a Northern Hemisphere stallion on Southern Hemisphere time and then exporting that mare to La Leyenda for five years. The mare is bred to La Leyenda stallions during that time and the owner and farm share each foal. After five years, the owner takes back complete control of the mare.

“We have received a very positive response from stallion owners, and response from mare owners has been very strong as well,” Renata Stein said. “We have already seven mares from Winchell Thoroughbreds in foal to Tapit that arrived for the project. We also received six mares from Mt. Brilliant Farm for boarding, including one in foal to Medaglia d’Oro. Most of these people have experienced Argentina and love the country, its people, the quality of its horses, and the level of horsemanship.”

Extracts from Thoroughbred Daily News

THE NAMES YOU KNOW

Giant’s Causeway (USA)
(Photo : The Stallion Barn)

Among the most significant innovations
we’ve seen from Bill in the past 30 years,
is a system for the rating of stallions called “Apex”

There’s no doubt about it. Bill Oppenheim is the longest surviving sales and stallion analyst in thoroughbred history; he survives principally because he’s the greatest researcher known to man, and secondly, because he articulates his views with such style.

Among the most significant innovations we’ve seen from Bill in the past 30 years, is a system for the rating of stallions called “Apex”, which is a refinement of the previous best method of assessing a stallion’s worth, the Average Earnings Index (AEI). The difference between the Apex system and AEI, is basically that Apex rates the number of high quality horses a stallion produces year-by-year (as well as over the duration of his lifetime at stud), while the AEI simply reflects gross earnings divided by the number of racing progeny, and is therefore liable to distortion by one or two big earners which can skew the figures for any particular stallion.

What’s more, Bill’s system has grown “legs” because it has several additional dimensions to it. Not only does it establish a means of comparing stallions across generations, but it is a potent indicator of the here-and-now performance of a stallion at any given time, as well as a useful tool in identifying up-and-coming young stallions.

For the purposes of this piece, very briefly, Bill divides his statistics into what he calls “A runners” (the top 2% of the breed), “B runners” (the next 2%), and “C runners” (the next 4%), and then he has an index called “ABC runners”, which include the top 8%. Obviously, to qualify as an elite stallion, he needs to be represented by a depth of occupants of all three of these spaces. It should be said though, that any table of statistics like Apex, is simply a snapshot of what is happening to this day, given the parameters established for the measurements. The highest correlation between a sire’s status, the market place and the industry, is probably with that horse’s actual stud fee: Apex figures aren’t really designed to identify that, though it’s surprising over the years how accurate the figures have proven in identifying the top sires, and especially in finding the emerging prospects. Our purpose in providing you with an insight into Bill’s recent findings is to point to the standout stallions of the current generation.

There are a few real standout performers (and no secrets here), these are the leading sires: Coolmore’s Galileo is now the leading active North American or European sire, both by A Runner Index (4.02), and by number of 2006-2012 A Runners (120). That’s really strong, to lead in both categories; not sure even Sadler’s Wells ever achieved that. Darley’s Dubawi has arguably surpassed the Juddmonte brothers-in-arms, Dansili and Oasis Dream, for Europe’s number two spot. Though a triple Group 1 winner (National Stakes at two; Irish 2000 Guineas, Prix Jacques le Marois at three) from the only crop by Dubai Millennium, Dubawi didn’t particularly come out at stud with a big reputation. He was Europe’s number two freshman sire of 2009 behind Shamardal, but once they turned three, and from then on, he just keeps siring good horses. He has a 3.36 A Runner Index, 2.15 ABC, with crops on line from much better calibre mares than he started with.

The young American horse who keeps coming up with impressive figures is WinStar’s Speightstown. Not only does he have a very high 3.51 A Runner Index (he’s always had very good APEX ratings), he is also over 2.00 for both B and C Runners, and so has a massive 2.51 ABC Runner Index, over 20% of his year-starters. Very high; and they have speed, a lot of them; besides, his first two crops of 5-year-olds-plus (foals of 2006 and 2007) have an impressive 4.04 index, indicating soundness. Two veteran American sires who have been the most consistent sires of good horses the last few years: Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway and WinStar’s veteran (age 20 this year), Distorted Humor. Giant’s Causeway was an “iron horse” on the racetrack, and he’s proving a sire of iron horses at stud.

His 110 A Runners 2006-2012 is second only to Galileo’s, but some of his other numbers are equally impressive: he”s had 1,922 year-starters - an average of over 270 a year. He’s had a massive 325 ABC Runners, which is still nearly 17% of his year-starters, thus maintaining an ABC Index of 2.11. He’s America’s top sire of quality in quantity. Distorted Humor runs number two to Giant’s Causeway with 297 ABC Runners, and has an even higher ABC Index (2.29). Giant’s Causeway averages more than 45 ABC Runners a year, Distorted Humor over 42; Galileo, who is third in number of ABC Runners (277), averages slightly under 40, and Danehill Dancer (248) in fourth, averages just over 35. In terms of siring durable, sound, money-making horses, Giant’s Causeway and Distorted Humor have proven to be real standouts.

Another phenomenon which the Apex ratings are able to identify, is the aging sires whose figures have begun to tail off, and this is achieved by maintaining a currency of the figures over a period of seven years, with the first of those seven dropping off each year, and being replaced by the current year. It’s a fact of the industry that affects most of the older icons of the business, two more recent examples being Gone West and Green Desert, both of whom were 2.53 A runner sires for most of their careers, but are now returning numbers, in Gone West’s case, of 1.28, and 1.12 for Green Desert.

There is nothing we know of to explain this, not in genetics and not in the physical specimens we see on the ground among their progeny. We all know that older mares can “tail off” in the quality of their progeny, and there’s a logical explanation for this in the wear-and- tear which the womb’s endometrial lining suffers over the years. It’s obviously a relative thing, and applies more in some cases than in others, but there’s nothing in a stallion’s “seeds”, as far as we are aware, to explain the drop-off in his progeny performances. Of course, we all know we’re in the fashion business, and that older stallions may lose some of their commercial lustre (and hence the support of the best mares), but when you consider that the lofty likes of Sadler’s Wells and Mr. Prospector both suffered the same fate, that on its own is not a complete explanation.

We’ve written to Bill to ask him if there’s anything he’s been able to establish through his research that can shed some light on it, and we will let you know what he says.

Editor’s note: One horse who at a relatively young stage in his career, looks to be on his way to becoming a serious sire of sires, is Coolmore’s Giant’s Causeway, who stands at their Ashford Stud division in Kentucky. He doesn’t have that many sons at stud as yet, but already in Shamardal, Footstepsinthesand and First Samurai, there are signs of some real prospects coming through. Another feather in the cap of the Storm Cat lineage.

DANEHILL: THREE x THREE = PARTY TIME

Statue of the great Danehill at Coolmore, Australia
(Photo : TDN Staff Blog)

SIR TRISTRAM vs DANEHILL

Mick GossWe had a fascinating evening in the restaurant at Hartford House last Sunday. Their celebrated chef, Jackie Cameron, had just enjoyed the distinction of her restaurant being counted once again among the Top Ten in the nation, the only one in KZN so exalted. Inevitably, good food and a good bottle of wine equals good conversation, not that these two ingredients are essential to an exuberant chat when Inglis’s Simon Vivian is part of the company. He is nothing if he is not one of the world’s most accomplished auctioneers, and his skills are not limited to his way with people. Simon knows his horses, not only the theory, but he is a fine example of a practical horseman, and of course as an inspector of all yearlings that make the Inglis sales in Australia, he sees a lot of horses. We all have our opinions on this game, that is one of its fascinations, and for good reason, Simon has well-reasoned thoughts on his observations.

One of these is that, in his opinion, Sir Tristram is the greatest Australasian sire of all time, which startled us a little in the light of the overwhelming influence Danehill has had on the affairs of breeding in that part of the world, particularly in Australia. Into the melting pot we should throw the names of Sir Tristram’s most famous son Zabeel, and the major Danehill influences, Fastnet Rock, Redoute’s Choice, Flying Spur and Commands, among many others. We countered with the proposition that Sir Tristram stood in an era when the competition was not nearly as stiff as it is these days, given that his principal opponents of the time were the likes of Bletchgingly and Marscay across the Tasman, while back at home there wasn’t much beyond Sovereign Edition and Star Way, and Sir Tristram’s early sons, Grosvenor and Kaapstad (forgive us if we’ve left anyone out!)

Another statement from Simon which surprised us, but obviously true in that moment, was that line-breeding to Danehill had thus far witnessed, at best, lukewarm results. This reminded me of a statement by another master of the pedigree world, Bill Oppenheim, who once remarked to us that (on the evidence available at that time), line-breeding to Mr Prospector and his sire Raise A Native, was not only inadvisable from a soundness perspective, but it had been disappointing in its outcomes.

No sooner had Bill given us the stats on the “Mr Ps”, than the cross of Mr P on Mr P began churning out an avalanche of top horses, and in Danehill’s case, Simon’s words were scarcely out of his mouth, and a Group One winner pops up with two lines of Danehill. The nine times Australian Champion sire has produced an unprecedented 347 Stakes winners and progeny earnings in excess of A$403million (more than R3.6billion), yet his achievements do not end there. As a sire of sires, he already has the Group One producers Al Maher, Arena, Blackfriars, Catbird, Commands, Danasinga, Dane Shadow, Danehill Dancer, Danetime, Danewin, Danroad, Danske, Dante’s Fury, Danzero, Darci Brahma, Desert King, Exceed And Excel, Fastnet Rock, Flying Spur, Holy Roman Emperor, Honours List, Keeper, Lion Hunter, Lucky Owners, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Oratorio, Rock Of Gibraltar, Redoute’s Choice and Viking Ruler.

Another generation down and Danehill’s grandsons Bradbury’s Luck (Redoute’s Choice), Choisir (Danehill Dancer), Casino Prince (Flying Spur), Duelled (Redoute’s Choice), Fast ‘N’ Famous (Redoute’s Choice), Snitzel (Redoute’s Choice) and Stratum (Redoute’s Choice) have also each sired Group One winners.

Four of Australia’s current top ten stallions, Fastnet Rock, Commands, Redoute’s Choice and Exceed And Excel, are sons of Danehill, whist another two of the top ten spots are held by sons of Redoute’s Choice, Stratum and Snitzel.

Currently second leading Australian broodmare sire (a title he has already won on six occasions), Danehill has also passed on his genetic strengths to his daughters, who have produced over 200 stakes winners, among which are 41 Group One winners, including superstar Frankel (Galileo).

His son Flying Spur is Australia’s fifth leading broodmare sire, whilst three sons of that Golden Slipper (Gr1) winner occupy the top seven positions in the second season sire chart; Casino Prince, Magnus and Shaft.

Meanwhile in the third season sire list there are five Danehills in the top ten: Holy Roman Emperor, Danerich, Churchill Downs, Darci Brahma and California Dane. In the sires of three-year-olds chart, Danehill dominates with the top four; Fastnet Rock, Commands, Casino Prince and Redoute’s Choice.

Danehill continues to make his mark in New Zealand also, with Darci Brahma and Keeper currently third and fourth. Eleventh meanwhile is Stratum, whose son Southern Lord added his name to the long list of Group One winning descendants of Danehill when storming home to take out last week’s Levin Classic (Gr1).

In overpowering another member of the line, Le Choix (Choisir), Southern Lord (Stratum) provided a further milestone for Danehill, in becoming the first Group One winner line-bred to that influential stallion.

The A$125,000 Magic Millions National Sale weanling is bred on a 3 X 3 cross of Danehill, where he appears as grandsire of his sire and sire of his second dam.

Out of the two times Stakes-placed Rory’s Jester mare, Angel Girl, Southern Lord carries a further two crosses of Danehill’s grandsire Northern Dancer, through Nijinsky II and Lyphard.

Southern Lord is the seventh stakes winner line-bred to Danehill, including the Group Three winners Psychologist (Choisir out of a Danzero mare), Ladies Are Forever (Monsieur Bond out of a Danetime mare), Leitir Mor (Holy Roman Emperor out of a granddaughter of Danehill) and Florentina (Redoute’s Choice out of a granddaughter of Danehill).

GOOD GOLLY GALILEO

Galileo
(Photo : Coolmore)

“326 Runners, 36 Black-Type Winners, 61 Black Type Horses,
24 Group/Graded Stakes Winners, 44 Group/Graded Stakes Horses,
7 Group/Grade 1 Winners”

Mick Goss
Summerhill CEOBill Oppenheim has just tabled a piece in the TDN on sire power on both sides of the Atlantic and regular followers of these columns will know of our own preoccupation with the shifting balance. Meanwhile though, just “dig” the piece on Galileo. I for one, never thought we’d see the likes of Sadler’s Wells again, yet within a single generation, it seems his son already has the beating of him. Thank goodness, our intuitions worked for once. We have six of his daughters at Summerhill.

“THE TOP SIRES : Empire Maker is back in the lead on the North American general sire list with a month to go in the season, with Speightstown over $300,000 ahead of Giant’s Causeway for second spot. Tapit is in fourth spot, with $8.6 million. But when you look at the TDN’s Leading Sire List, you do see the overall 1-2-3 are Euros Galileo, Montjeu, and Dubawi. Those numbers for Galileo are just spectacular: 326 runners - which is a lot: an amazing 36 black-type winners this year, and 61 black-type horses - one in every five of his runners. An equally huge 24 of these are group/graded stakes winners, and 44 are group/graded stakes horses, with 7 Group/Grade 1 winners.

Maybe we’ve not had the technology up ‘til now, but I never remember seeing a sire put up those kind of numbers.”

STUD FEES : 60-40 KENTUCKY

60-40 Kentucky
(Photo : Science Reflections)

“Europe is still under-populated in terms of, let’s say,
the 100 highest-priced stallions, and Kentucky is overpopulated.”

Bill Oppenheim
Thoroughbred Daily NewsTen or 15 years ago the normal way to summarize the relationship between North America and Europe in the breeding community was to say the size of the foal crop, or the number of runners in a season, was twice as many in North America as in Britain, Ireland, and France combined; in other words, North America was two-thirds of the pie, the three major European racing countries one-third. And by that time - the period around the turn of the 21st century - Sadler’s Wells had already led the re-establishment of Europe as standing major stallions, so the pendulum had already swung a little bit away from the complete dominance in sire power Kentucky (and Maryland, with Northern Dancer) enjoyed during the 1980’s.

In one year, between 2011 and 2012, there was a shift of 5% in numbers and 8% in money spent for A$200,000 yearlings from North America to Europe. In a similar vein, using a different criterion - the number of stallions standing for $17,500 or more - we can estimate there has been at least a further 20% swing in sire power over the last decade, and from 2/3 - 1/3 in one reliable measurement 10 years ago, the number of stallions in a different, but equally reliable estimate, shows the ratio is now down to 60-40; in fact, it is actually 59-41. There are 93 stallions scheduled to stand for $17,500+ (or equivalent in GBP sterling or Euros) in North America and the three European countries in 2013; 55 of them (59%) will be standing in North America, and 38 will be standing in Europe (41%). The ratio of $750,000+ yearlings sold in 2012 was 2-to-1 in favor of Europe (33 to 16), yet the ratio of sires standing for $17,500 or more is still 60-40 in favor of America, and specifically, Kentucky. Even the transfer of Henrythenavigator from Kentucky to Ireland doesn’t go very far to evening that out.

The conclusion you have to draw from looking at these ratios is that Europe is still under-populated in terms of, let’s say, the 100 highest-priced stallions, and that Kentucky is overpopulated. And, as you can see from the accompanying table and graph, there are a few other points to consider when you break the figures down just a little further:

First, it is striking that the approximate 60-40 ratio prevails in all three categories we’ve listed: 45,000+ (18 NA, 12 EU); $17,500-40,000 proven (19 NA, 13 EU); and $17,500-40,000 unproven (18-13) (F2010 freshman sires of 2012 are included in this category}; total 55-38 (59%-41%). So, even though $750,000+ yearlings are selling 2-to-1 in Europe, the top 30 sires on stud fee are still 60-40 Kentucky (of course, this is considering only the North American and European markets, not Japan, Australia, etc).

Second, within Europe, Ireland dominates proceedings, with 23 (60%) of the 38 European sires standing for $17,500 or more; Britain has 14 (37%); France has just one (3%) - Redoute’s Choice, imported to the Aga Khan’s Haras de Bonneval for the 2013 season, with a ticket of €70,000 to breed to. However, Ireland is actually stronger at the ‘second-tier’ level of $17,500-40,000, with 69% (18 of 26) of those stallions; at the top tier, Britain has 50% (6), Ireland 42% (5), and France, of course, has one of the 12 (8%).

Third, with the retirement of Frankel (£125,000) and the ascension of New Approach to a top-tier (£50,000) from a second-tier (£22,500) stallion, there is now a marked imbalance among British stallions. The overall ratio of top-tier to second-tier stallions for the whole sample is roughly 1 to 2 (32.3% to 67.7%, which is very nearly one-third, two-thirds) among the 93. Yet there are only four proven sires in Great Britain standing for $17,500-40,000, and four unproven sires, for a total of eight of the 14 stallions (57%), whereas it should be 10% higher.

In short, if there are six stallions standing for 45,000+, there should be 12 standing for $17,500- 40,000, and there are only eight. To the extent that the British TBA’s thus-far incomprehensible BOBIS scheme depends on stallions standing in Britain, they’re barking up the wrong tree. Especially for breeders using second-tier stallions - which would be at least twice as many as use top-tier stallions - Ireland has far more stallions in this price range to choose from, 18 to eight.

Fourth, France. They may have the best racing system of the three countries (probably thanks largely to the PMU and a dedicated revenue stream from it to purses), but for stallions, forget it. More often than not these days they don’t even have a stallion standing for as much as €15,000. There would be a lot of British and especially Irish boarding farms that would no doubt be very unhappy if France suddenly developed its own group of what we’re classifying as ‘second-tier’ stallions. Still, you’d think there’d be room for one or two more.

Fifth, Kentucky. As such non-native, but current residents of Kentucky like Mike Levy and Labhras Draper like to remind me, “don’t write Kentucky off too soon.” Yes, as we have seen, there have been measurable shifts away from Kentucky towards Europe in both yearling sales and stallions standing; and yes, there have also been significant movements in what we could call ‘third-tier’ (let’s say $7,500-$15,000) stallions - or maybe we could also refer to them as the ‘lower commercial tier,’ and call the ‘second-tier’ $17,500-40,000 stallions the ‘upper commercial tier.’

In any case, there are definite shifts of third-tier stallions out of Kentucky, such as the promising F2012 Darley sire Desert Party (Street Cry), whose first foals are selling this year, from Kentucky to New York. So, yes, even though there are these shifts away from Kentucky, still 59% of all the stallions in North America and Europe that stand for $17,500 or more - and 60% of the top 30 sires, which stand for 45,000 or more - stand in Kentucky. It’s true: it isn’t really safe or credible to leave them out of calculations, to dismiss them, entirely, as some Euros now seem to want to do.

Extract from Thoroughbred Daily News